Tag Archives: work force

New HIV/AIDS Statistics from Truvada . by Alice B. Clagett

Published on 25 February 2019; slightly revised on 2 March 2019; revised on 6 March 2019

  • UNITED STATES: STATES WITH HIGHEST HIV INCIDENCE
  • GREATER INCIDENCE OF HIV IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
  • STATISTICS FOR RECIPIENTS OF RECTAL SEX
  • STATISTICS FOR MEN HAVING SEX WITH MEN, AND THE ISSUE OF SECRET MALE BISEXUALITY
    • Impact of Secret Bisexuality on Life Expectancy of Wives and Children
  • THE GREATER HIV INCIDENCE AMONGST HISPANICS AND AFRICAN AMERICANS
  • THE VERY HIGH TRANSGENDER HIV STATISTICS
  • DIAGNOSED HIV INCIDENCE VERY DIFFERENT FOR MEN AND WOMEN IN THE UNITED STATES
  • CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN, AS WELL AS MEN, TESTING FOR HIV ANNUALLY
  • HOW TO GET AN HIV TEST
  • THE DANGER OF YOUNG CHILDREN CONTRACTING HIV
    • Is the Drug Trade Targeting Young Children?
    • Are Youth Contracting HIV from Drug Peddlers?
    • Likelihood of ‘Blooms’ of HIV amongst Youth in Communities Nationwide
    • Increase in After-School Petty Crime May Forewarn of Youth HIV ‘Blooms’
  • LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR CHILDREN WHO HAVE HIV
  • HOMELESS AND OUT-OF-WORK CITIZENS AS A MANPOWER RESOURCE FOR TOWNS HARD HIT BY THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC
  • THE IMPORTANCE OF NURTURING HIV POSITIVE NEWBORNS
  • 300-YEAR PROJECTION WITH REGARD TO MINIMUM VIABLE HUMAN POPULATION
  • THE OUTLOOK FOR HUMANKIND

Dear Ones,

Those of you who have been reading my Community Health blogs on the global HIV-AIDS pandemic may know that I have felt for some time now that HIV/AIDS incidence in the United States has been under-reported, partly because of the AIDS stigma, and partly because of insufficient testing in the United States, including testing of men, women and children, regardless of their perceived sexual orientation; or, in the case of young children, of their perceived degree of sexual activity.

I have come across new statistics from Truvada on the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the United States. According to Truvada, currently 1 in 100 Americans are likely to be diagnosed HIV-positive in their lifetime …

Link: “Truvada” … https://www.truvada.com/hcp/guidelines?utm_source=truvada_prep&utm_medium=referral ..

That page is full of information and very long; fortunately I found that if I right mouse click on the lower left part of the page, the part that has statistics in it, I have the option “Print Friendly and PDF,” which worked great for me using Chrome for Windows.

I see Truvada’s source for this information is …

Link: “2016 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections,” by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, published 2016, accessed 8 June 2017 … http://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/newsroom/2016/croi-2016.html ….

UNITED STATES: STATES WITH HIGHEST HIV INCIDENCE

According to the Truvada website, the statistics vary greatly from state to state, here in America. For instance, in Washington, DC, the lifetime risk of HIV diagnosis is 1 in every 13 people. In Maryland, the risk is 1 in 49. Other states with risk ranging from 1 in 51 to 1 in 97 (which is to say, among the highest in the nation) are Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, New York, Texas, New Jersey, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, and Alabama (the first listed being the states with higher incidence).

States with risk ranging from 1 in 402 to 1 in 670 (which is to say, among the lowest in the nation) are South Dakota, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Vermont, Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota (the last listed being the states with lower incidence).

GREATER INCIDENCE OF HIV IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES

Here is a map from the Centers for Disease Control CDC), using 2015 data, indicating that the Southern states … which comprise 38% of the United States population that year, accounted for 51% of annual HIV infections, and 51% of undiagnosed infections … https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/images/policies/cdc-hiv-south-burden.png … I note their definition of Southern states includes states from Texas to Maryland, and south to Florida.

I note as well that many of these states have voted not to offer expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act …

Link: “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion by state,” by Kurykh, 19 September 2013 …   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid#/media/File:ACA_Medicaid_expansion_by_state.svg ..

That might affect availability of healthcare for HIV and AIDS in some low per capita income Southern areas. It looks like the Centers for Disease Control have recognized the need for more HIV and AIDS health resources to be dedicated to the South, and have begun providing these …

Link: “HIV Prevention in the South: Aligning CDC’s Funding with Current HIV Trends” (2010 and 2015 data) https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/policies/cdc-hiv-south-graphic.pdf ..

STATISTICS FOR RECIPIENTS OF RECTAL SEX

According to the Truvada statistics, among men who have sex with men, receptive rectal sex partners are at high risk of contracting HIV … 13 times more so than are insertive partners.

Truvada does not have statistics on this, but I feel the risk may be just as high (and for similar biological reasons) for women who are receptive rectal sex partners. For more on this, from an energetic and intuitive point of view, search my site for the word: rectal

STATISTICS FOR MEN HAVING SEX WITH MEN, AND THE ISSUE OF SECRET MALE BISEXUALITY

Again according to the Truvada statistics, the risk of HIV infection is 83 times greater amongst men having sex with men, than it is amongst heterosexual men. This brings up the question how many men are bisexual, passing for heterosexual? As an intuitive, I feel this number to be a good deal higher than the socially accepted notion.

For a married bisexual man, passing as purely heterosexual for the sake of social convention, I feel the likelihood of HIV infection might be close to that for purely homosexual men.

Impact of Secret Bisexuality on Life Expectancy of Wives and Children

As well, I feel the likelihood would be high that a secretly bisexual man might not share a positive HIV status with his wife. The results of this secrecy would be decreased life expectancy for the wife, due to her ignorance of the need for antiretroviral treatment (ART), and the risk of the wife passing on HIV to her newborns, and to her older children, through bodily fluids contact (due to her ignorance of the need to take precautions).

THE GREATER HIV INCIDENCE AMONGST HISPANICS AND AFRICAN AMERICANS

The greater Truvada-reported incidence of HIV infection amongst MSM Hispanics and African Americans may have to do with socioeconomic status and affordability of condoms; this is just an intuitive thought … I have no way to back it up factually.

THE VERY HIGH TRANSGENDER HIV STATISTICS

According to the Truvada statistics, of the 1.4 million transgender Americans, about 1 in 5 are HIV positive. Truvada estimates the risk that a transgender woman will have HIV is 34 times more than that for adults who identify with their birth sex.

Intuitively speaking, this may have to do with a greater proportion of transgender Americans being polyamorous, or maybe being employed as sex workers? For instance, in Wikipedia I read that about 13 percent of transgender women have participated in the sex trade …

Link: “Transgender sex worker,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transgender_sex_worker ..

… compared to 1 percent of American women overall …

Link: “How Many Prostitutes Are in the United States and the Rest of the World?” in ProCon.org, 11 January 2018 … https://prostitution.procon.org/view.answers.php?questionID=000095 ..

My thought on that is, it could be that the greater the number of sexual partners, either through polyamory or through sex work, the greater the likelihood of contracting an STD, including an increased likelihood of contracting HIV. This is just a thought; I do not have the statistics on it.

DIAGNOSED HIV INCIDENCE VERY DIFFERENT FOR MEN AND WOMEN IN THE UNITED STATES

Again according to Truvada, the risk of men being diagnosed as HIV positive is more than three times greater than that for women. I believe this may be because men are more aware of the need to test, and if they test positive, are unwilling to let their wives know that, because of the social stigma.

CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN, AS WELL AS MEN, TESTING FOR HIV ANNUALLY

I cannot overemphasize the importance of everyone in America testing annually, provided they have not yet been diagnosed HIV-positive. This includes women and children as well.

HOW TO GET AN HIV TEST

A while ago I read that, here in California, physicians were required to report social security numbers of AIDS patients to Sacramento, the reason for this being that documentation of the social security numbers would prevent duplicate reporting and consequent false inflation of the AIDS statistics here. Whether this also applies to positive HIV results here in California, I do not know. And no doubt, required documentation on the progress of the pandemic varies state by state.

Intuitively, I feel that the thought of being reported to Sacramento may cause people to avoid testing. They may feel, possibly because of the earlier social stigma of AIDS, that something just awful might happen to them if Sacramento finds out. Maybe their friends and neighbors will find out. Maybe they will lose their jobs because of it. Maybe they will not be welcome at church anymore. Maybe their children will be expelled from school because of it.

These kinds of fears may needlessly prevent Americans from testing for HIV, here in California, even though Medicaid and Medicare provide for annual HIV and AIDS tests: People may delay in testing, through concern that positive results here in California might be reported to Sacramento, and that they might be subject to community disparagement because of test results.

For those concerned about the social stigma of a positive HIV diagnosis, it is good to know that the large drug stores such as Rite-Aid, Walgreens, and CVS carry HIV diagnosis kits on the shelves near their pharmacies.

My understanding is that the saliva test available from the large drug stores is about 90% accurate, provided the test is done a month or more after sexual contact. Ninety percent is not such a good rate of accuracy, but the advantage, for those concerned about the AIDS stigma, is that if you pay cash for the kit at a pharmacy where no one knows you, then no one will know you took the test, and no one will know your diagnosis. And also, you will know the test results immediately.

There is another test available at some of the large pharmacies … a blood test for HIV. My understanding is that this type of test is about 98% accurate, for those who wait a month after sexual contact before testing. That is a pretty good rate of accuracy, but as I understand it, the blood sample must be sent out to a lab, which means that the lab will know the results of your test. Further, it will take time to get the test results back from the lab.

It is also possible, in some cases, to go to a Family Urgent Care clinic and pay cash for an on-the-spot HIV blood test. This would be a good alternative, I feel, for those in communities with Family Urgent Care clinics so equipped, and for whom time and accuracy are of the essence.

Once a person tests HIV positive, then the thing to do, I feel, would be to ask their physician about available antiretroviral treatments (ART). According to what I have read, ART is very helpful in delaying the occasional outbreaks of AIDS sickness that occur amongst those Americans with the virus. I have also read that Medicaid and Medicare insurance will cover medical treatment.

THE DANGER OF YOUNG CHILDREN CONTRACTING HIV

Is the Drug Trade Targeting Young Children?

Intuitively, from the clair plane, I feel that the drug trade is now targeting preschool children, with 8-year-old children as drug peddlers. Young children have insufficient money to purchase drugs, once addicted, may turn to petty theft from cars and homes to pay for continued drug use.

Are Youth Contracting HIV from Drug Peddlers?

Pertinent to the global HIV pandemic, and again, intuitively speaking, it seems to me that adult drug peddlers sometimes may offer drugs to young children in exchange for sex. Adult drug peddlers are higher risk for HIV and AIDS; thus the danger exists of young children getting HIV because of drug addiction.

Likelihood of ‘Blooms’ of HIV amongst Youth in Communities Nationwide

Because of permissive sexual practices among young people today, it seems to me likely that, once one sexually active child in a school contracts HIV, the likelihood will be that most of the children will have HIV with six months or a year.

Increase in After-School Petty Crime May Forewarn of Youth HIV ‘Blooms’

Again in clair vision, I feel this is creating ‘hot spots’ of youth pandemic nationwide. My feeling is, youth testing, again because of the AIDS stigma, is woefully lacking in most locales; I may be wrong about this, though. If my intuition turns out to be true, then a way to predict HIV blooms amongst youth in America would be to tabulate after-school petty theft from automobiles and homes … These might indicate that drugs are being sold to school children.

LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR CHILDREN WHO HAVE HIV

As you may know, to date there is insufficient research on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for youth; the difficulty being that the drugs used for adults may prove damaging to the bodies of growing children. Thus, infection with HIV is more dangerous for young children, than for adults, and has a much greater impact on their life expectancy.

The data on life expectancy for children in their teens who contract HIV are better than for newborns and toddlers who contract HIV. My feeling is, this may be because teens have less length of time to wait before antiretroviral treatment can begin, than do very young children.

There is, as I understand it, a high likelihood that people with HIV will have newborns who are diagnosed HIV positive. Most newborns so diagnosed, as nearly as I can tell, are not surviving to puberty. Thus a young local population that has a ‘bloom’ of HIV infection is unlikely to have viable offspring.

HOMELESS AND OUT-OF-WORK CITIZENS AS A MANPOWER RESOURCE FOR TOWNS HARD HIT BY THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC

The life expectancy of people who contract HIV in adulthood is much greater than that for those who contract HIV in youth, because of the availability of antiretroviral treatment for adults, and the relative lack of availability of ART for youth.

Thus the likely scenario of blooms of HIV incidence amongst youth in communities here and there, across America, to do with the drug trade, and resulting in inability of youth to have viable offspring. Towns with such HIV blooms amongst youth will, in the coming decade, most likely experience a projected demographic of stagnant or declining workforce.

In situations where American towns experience such a demographic because of the pandemic’s effect on their youth, the nation’s homeless and out-of-work population may be seen to be a resource for manpower in the decades to come. These homeless and out-of-work citizens may take the place, in the work force of towns hard hit by the pandemic, of the children of today’s children that cannot be anticipated to survive.

Even those of the homeless and out-of-work sector who test positive for HIV may provide many years of manpower to their communities, provided they have access to current antiretroviral treatments (ART).

THE IMPORTANCE OF NURTURING HIV POSITIVE NEWBORNS

In every plague past of humankind, there has emerged a population of plague-resistant remaining human beings. I have no doubt but what that will be the case with the worldwide HIV pandemic.

The issue is, to preserve the health of as many newborns as possible, even if they are HIV positive, as some of these newborns may survive, and may have HIV-resistant genes that allow their immune systems to be healthy, despite the infection. I see from this article that about 1 percent of Caucasians may be HIV-resistant …

Link: “Anyone Immune to HIV? A genetic mutation that blocks HIV may hold the key to future treatment and, perhaps, a cure,” by Elaine Mendus and Trudy Ring, 23 March 2016 … https://www.hivplusmag.com/research-breakthroughs/2016/3/23/anyone-immune-hiv ..

I feel certain that other races and cultures will be found to have individuals with HIV-resistant genes as well.

Thus my own estimate for an HIV-resistant group of people worldwide, who are able to produce viable offspring, is in the more hopeful range of 10 to 20 percent of the current world population

300-YEAR PROJECTION WITH REGARD TO MINIMUM VIABLE HUMAN POPULATION

The world population is now 7.53 billion. Were this population to be reduced to 1 percent over the next 300 years, the world population will have declined to 75.3 million. From my reading, this is well above the minimum viable population for humankind …

Link: “Minimum viable population,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_viable_population ..

If my more hopeful estimate of 10 to 20 percent HIV-resistant people worldwide were to prove true, then the prospects for continuance of humankind on Earth would be all the better.

Thus my intuitive projection, going forward, is that there will be a decline in population over the next few centuries, and a strengthening of the human gene pool. There is, I feel, an excellent likelihood that humankind will retain a firm footing amongst Earth species, and with a lesser ongoing negative impact on the ecosphere.

THE OUTLOOK FOR HUMANKIND

This is a pandemic like any other. Infection is not a mark of disparagement or a social put-down; no more so than was the case with other pandemics in human history. The more compassionate understanding and loving kindness each community can bring to bear in regard to this very difficult situation, the better it will be for everyone.

As the pandemic continues on a global scale, our best hopes for humankind lie, in the short term, in increased awareness of the prevalence of the pandemic, in lowering of AIDS stigma consciousness, and in voluntary annual testing by men, women, and children of all ages, with medical treatment for those who test positive.

In the mid term, there is hope for healthwise changes in sexual practices, and for new medical regimes. And in the long term, our hope as humankind lies in the presence in our gene pool of HIV-resistant populations.

I ask God’s blessing for each of us, in these difficult times. May we all be blessed with good health, abundance, and happiness in the coming years.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

Link: “2016 HIV Lifetime Risk Statistics from Centers for Disease Control,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 30 March 2019 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-c3f ..

Link: “Compendium: HIV Pandemic,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 2 March 2019 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-bPl ..

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Community Health, HIV, AIDS, homeless, MSM, M2M, homosexuality, heterosexuality, bisexuality, children and HIV, newborns and HIV, Truvada, HIV resistance, AIDS resistance, social stigma, homelessness, vagrancy, joblessness, work force, manpower, drug war, transgender, HIV tests, California AIDS reportability, minimum viable population, one-upmanship,

Does ‘Safe Sex’ Prevent HIV / AIDS Transmission? . by Alice B. Clagett

Published on 14 June 2018

  • SAFE SURGERY: RISK OF GLOVE PERFORATION DURING SURGERY
    • Self-Assessment and Segregation of HIV-Infected Surgeons to HIV-Infected Patient Groups
  • SAFE INCARCERATION: MITIGATING HIV / AIDS ‘BLOOMS’ IN PENAL INSTITUTIONS
  • COMPARISON OF SURGICAL GLOVE PERFORATION STATISTICS TO STATISTICS ON CONDOM BREAKAGE
  • RISK MITIGATION THROUGH DOUBLE BAGGING
    • Glove Perforation Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging During Surgery
    • Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging Condoms During Sexual Intercourse
  • THE IMPORTANCE OF SLOWING DOWN THE COURSE OF A PANDEMIC
    • Uninfected Children Can Help Strengthen the Workforce of the Next 5 Decades
    •  Are HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Being Born Worldwide?
    • Insurance Availability of Voluntary Annual HIV Testing in the United States
    • Nurturing HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Will Strengthen Our Gene Pool
  •  ATTENUATION: THE NORMAL COURSE OF A PANDEMIC
    • Mortality Rate During the 1918 Flu Pandemic, Compared to the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic
    • Pandemics: A More Benign Infecting Agent Over Time? Or a Stronger Human Gene Pool?

Dear Ones,

SAFE SURGERY: RISK OF GLOVE PERFORATION DURING SURGERY

A while ago I did a blog on the effectiveness of surgical gloving in preventing blood taint during surgeries …

Link: “Overview of Surgical Risk, HIV / AIDS, Hepatitis, and Hard Drugs,” by Alice B. Clagett, updated on 6 July 2017; originally published on 17 October 2016, https://wp.me/p2Rkym-6gY ..

Here is the paper that was reviewed in the blog …

Link: “Occult Glove Perforation during Ophthalmic Surgery,” by Leonard Apt, MD, and (by invitation) Kevin M. Miller, MD, http://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1298427&blobtype=pdf ..

In the paper, if I understand it correctly, Drs. Apt and Miller found a 15.0% incidence of surgically induced glove perforations over 7 months.

In other words, if there is a 15% chance that a doctor’s surgical gloves might be perforated in 7 months, then there is a 15% chance of blood tainting during a medical procedure that involves exposure to a patient’s blood while it is in his or her body. According to the laws of probability, as I understand it, that would be a 15% chance of virus transmission with each surgery.

Self-Assessment and Segregation of HIV-Infected Surgeons to HIV-Infected Patient Groups

From this I deduced the possible danger to doctors of their being infected with HIV or hepatitis while they were wearing surgical gloves while doing operations. This then, might be a source point for HIV / AIDS ‘blooms’ as the pandemic progresses, unless the medical self-assesses and limits surgeries by infected surgeons to infected patient groups.

SAFE INCARCERATION: MITIGATING HIV / AIDS ‘BLOOMS’ IN PENAL INSTITUTIONS

As an aside, I feel that the incidence of HIV / AIDS ‘blooms’ in penal institutions … correctional facilities or prison … might be mitigated in a similar manner; that is, if correctional institutions self-assess and limit policing by infected correctional officers to infected groups of prisoners. The possibility of a correctional facility HIV / AIDS ‘bloom’ has to do with the practice of rape in these facilities, whether among prisoners, or by correctional facility officers. Prison rape is a practice just now beginning to be brought to light and figured into the pandemic equation.

COMPARISON OF SURGICAL GLOVE PERFORATION STATISTICS TO STATISTICS ON CONDOM BREAKAGE

To return to the article by Drs. Apt and Miller: That article got me thinking about how that finding might apply to the wearing of condoms during sexual intercourse. I think that there’s some congruence there.

Other factors being equal, might it be that wearing a condom during the act of sex might incur a 15% chance of HIV, hepatitis, or other virus transmission with every act of sexual intercourse? I’ve read an article by Planned Parenthood that supports this …

Link: “What are the chances of getting pregnant with a condom?,” by Emily @ Planned Parenthood, 18 December 2017, 9:13 p.m., https://www.plannedparenthood.org/learn/teens/ask-experts/what-are-the-chances-of-getting-pregnant-with-a-condom ..

According to the article, among heterosexual couples where the man uses a condom during sexual intercourse, 18 in 100 of the women will become pregnant each year.

Among heterosexual couples where the woman uses a female condom, 21 in 100 women yearly will become pregnant.

Thus there is an 18% or 21% ‘ineffectiveness’ rate through condom use amongst heterosexual couples yearly. This figure is reasonably close to the 15% ‘ineffectiveness’ factor found by Drs. Apt and Miller for surgical glove protection.

Thus, we might extrapolate that a 15% to 21% annual effectiveness rate for prevention of STD virus transmission might be attained by using condoms, whether M2F, M2M, or F2F.

In other words, 15% to 21% of people using condoms for ‘safe sex’ might be anticipated to contract HIV or hepatitis annually, if their partner is infected.

RISK MITIGATION THROUGH DOUBLE BAGGING

Glove Perforation Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging During Surgery

The study by Drs. Apt and Miller discussed at some length the advantages of wearing two pairs of surgical gloves during surgery … of ‘double gloving’. Their retroactive findings were interesting, but inconclusive. One of the factors that needed to be looked at in future studies was correlation of location of punctures in inner and outer gloves worn during surgery. Were these to correlate … in other words, in cases of perforation of both gloves at one location … then, most likely, the risk of viral transmission, in cases where either the surgeon or the patient is infected, would be greater.

Then, in surgical cases, much might depend on the type of surgery being performed. For instance, hip arthroplasties … that is, total hip replacement surgeries … there is rough work involved. These surgeries must be done by physically strong surgeons. Manipulation of the joints may, I feel, result in greater likelihood of glove puncture. That is just my thought on it, without my doing any research on it. So it seemed to me that studies ought to be planned regarding correlation of location of punctures in inner and outer gloves worn during these types of surgery.

Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging Condoms During Sexual Intercourse

Wikipedia states that ‘double bagging’ … using two condoms instead of one … offers greater protection …

“‘Double bagging’, using two condoms at once, is often believed to cause a higher rate of failure due to the friction of rubber on rubber. This claim is not supported by research. The limited studies that have been done found that the simultaneous use of multiple condoms decreases the risk of condom breakage.” –from “Condom,” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condom … CC BY-SA 3.0

Planned Parenthood has more to say on this …

Link: “The Truth about Condoms,” by Planned Parenthood, July 2011, https://www.plannedparenthood.org/files/9313/9611/6384/truth_about_condoms.pdf ..

Under the subheading “Double Bagging,” they mention that three studies indicate double bagging … wearing two condoms … is effective in decreasing the risk of condoms breaking. One of the studies stated that double bagging decreased the risk of HIV transmission from 1.8% to only 0.2%. The study in question was …

Citation: ” Multiple Condom Use and Decreased Condom Breakage and Shippage in Thailand,” by Rugpao, Sugwal, et al., February 1997, in Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
and Human Retrovirology,14(2), 169–173.

That would mean that single bagging results in a 98.2% effectiveness (that is 100% less 1.8%), and that double bagging results in 99.8% effectiveness (that is, 100% less 0.2%), as to the risks of condom breakage during sexual intercourse.

What do these percentages mean, in terms of the probability of HIV transmission? If the risk of condom breakage decreases from 1.8% to 0.2% with double bagging, then the risk, with double bagging, is only 10% as great as with single bagging.

Planned Parenthood translates 98% effectiveness as meaning, in a practical context, that 18% of heterosexual women using condoms will become pregnant each year. Were this risk to be 10% as great, then, presumably, only 2 women in 100 would become pregnant annually.

This pregnancy rate presumably correlates to condom breakage or slippage; thus the statistics might also apply to transmission of HIV and hepatitis. What we have then, is a potentially very significant mitigation of the rate of transmission of HIV and hepatitis through double bagging during sexual intercourse.

THE IMPORTANCE OF SLOWING DOWN THE COURSE OF A PANDEMIC

Slowing down the course of the HIV pandemic is important, both in terms of mitigation of human suffering, and also in terms of stabilization of the work force, and of available manpower, so as to keep our economy as strong and healthy as that of other nations, all of which are being impacted by the HIV / AIDS pandemic.

Uninfected Children Can Help Strengthen the Workforce of the Next 5 Decades

The more we are able to slow down the course of the pandemic, worldwide, the greater will be the numbers of uninfected children born to the upcoming generation. These children, along with people now adults and uninfected, will strengthen our workforce during the next 5 decades.

Are HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Being Born Worldwide?

Slowing down the course of the pandemic will also allow the human gene pool a ‘leg up’ in the natural course of selecting for a population that is resistant to HIV. More and more babies are being born already infected with HIV. The scant literature on mortality rates leans toward these babies not surviving to adulthood; but the truth is, data on this topic are woefully inadequate, as yet.

For instance, it is possible that babies are being born in the world today, who have the HIV infection. But because they appear to be perfectly normal, no one knows that they carry HIV. This might be the case, for instance, in Africa, where health care resources are less available.

Insurance Availability of Voluntary Annual HIV Testing in the United States

It might also be the case here in the United States, where annual HIV testing … though paid for by Medicare and other government programs … is seldom taken advantage of. This is most likely due, I feel, to backwardness of physician guidelines regarding the HIV pandemic. That would be easy to fix, though, by updating physicians on the advisability of annual HIV testing, and of testing newborns for HIV.

Nurturing HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Will Strengthen Our Gene Pool

Thus it is possible that children are being born, here in the United States, and also worldwide, who are resistant to the HIV virus; who are able to lead healthy lives, and to bear healthy children. On this very likely possibility, it would be wholly inadvisable to react to the birth of HIV-positive children in our hospitals, with a policy of euthanasia. This type of policy would place our nation at a disadvantage, as regards other nations, in birthing a generation of children who have HIV, but are naturally resistant to the virus.

Putting the breaks on the rate of the pandemic … through double bagging, through voluntary annual testing and voluntary testing of newborns, and also through education on the risks and rewards of various sexual lifestyle choices … will allow the United States time and resources to nurture HIV-positive newborns, rather than making the short-sighted choice to euthanize them as a cost-saving measure.

These will be children who will be able to bear viable children, despite the infection, in years to come. Thus, slowing down the course of the pandemic will allow our human gene pool a ‘leg up’ in the natural course of selecting for a population that is resistant to HIV.

ATTENUATION: THE NORMAL COURSE OF A PANDEMIC

Mortality Rate During the 1918 Flu Pandemic, Compared to the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic

We can expect that the HIV of future generations will be much different from the HIV of today. Such was the case with the influenza epidemic of the early 1900s … In the 1900s, the flu was very deadly, striking down one in every 10 to 20 people …

“The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died. With about a third of the world population infected, this case-fatality ratio means 3% to 6% of the entire global population died.” –from “1918 Flu Pandemic,” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic … CC BY 3.0

Yet today, many people successfully survive infection with influenza. For instance, in the 2009-2010 Swine flu … H1N1 … pandemic, 1 in 5 people were infected, but the mortality rate was only 0.2% …

Link: “Swine flu infected 1 in 5, death rate low, study shows,” by Kate Kelland, 25 January 2013, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-h1n1-pandemic/swine-flu-infected-1-in-5-death-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125 ..

Pandemics: A More Benign Infecting Agent Over Time? Or a Stronger Human Gene Pool?

As I understand it, this is the normal progress of a pandemic: Those who are genetically most susceptible to the infecting agent are likely to pass on, in either the first or the second generation of the pandemic. Others, with genes more capable of withstanding the impact of the infecting agent, survive. The result, over time, is a gene pool more capable of resisting the impact of the infecting agent.

From our human standpoint, over time, it appears that the infecting agent has become more benign. But in fact, it is our human gene pool that has become more viable.

This is the normal course of pandemics in human populations. Were we to look at the course of pandemics in domestic animal populations, we would most likely find correlation.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

MORE INFORMATION

Link: “Overview of Surgical Risk, HIV / AIDS, Hepatitis, and Hard Drugs,” by Alice B. Clagett, Updated on 6 July 2017; new text is in green font; originally published on 17 October 2016, https://wp.me/p2Rkym-6gY ..

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HIV, HIV pandemic, AIDS, AIDS pandemic, economic, work force, manpower, safe surgery, safe sex, surgical glove perforation, safe incarceration, HIV blooms, AIDS blooms, penal institutions, correctional facilities, prisons, condom breakage, double bagging, HIV-positive newborns, HIV-resistant children, 1918 Flu pandemic, 1918 influenza pandemic, 2009 swine flu pandemic, H1N1 pandemic, pandemic attenuation, viral attenuation, gene pool, viable gene pool, genetic, correctional system,

‘Homeless Trains’ Like the ‘Orphan Trains’? . by Alice B. Clagett

Published on 20 April 2018

Dear Ones,

I saw an intriguing video about the Orphan Trains that settled orphans (some of them ‘street urchins’ or ‘juvenile delinquents’) from urban environments in farm communities at the turn of the last century. Here’s a good source of information on that …

Link: “West by Orphan Train,” in PBS LearningMedia …   https://iptv.pbslearningmedia.org/collection/orphan-train/#.WtoYCG4vzAV ..

I see that the Trump administration has offered 2 billion dollars’ worth of grants to help the homeless …

Link:  “US Gives $2B to Help Homeless Amid Plans to Cut Housing Aid,” 11 January 2018 …   https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2018-01-11/trump-administration-announces-2b-to-help-the-homeless ..

I expect it will take some time for this grant money to filter down into local communities. I have a thought about that:

Might ‘Homeless Trains’ be devised, along the lines of the ‘Orphan Trains’, to resettle the homeless from urban areas into parts of the nation that are in need of labor?

Here’s a map showing where the orphans were settled …

Image: “Where the Orphans Went” … https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/67ca4560bc7bbfb330a680b71514bfe1a319da08/c=0-0-401-301&r=x404&c=534×401/local/-/media/2017/01/27/WIGroup/Sheboygan/636211244698689755–2-Map-where-Children-went.jpg ..

I wonder if this map might be a good starting place for a plan to resettle the urban homeless?

I note also that the ‘orphan train’ children sometimes needed to be resettled in new homes, and sometimes this happened several times to one child. We might anticipate that resettled homeless people might need followup and relocation services as well.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
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street urchins, juvenile delinquents, homeless, homeless grants, resettlement of homeless, resettlement of orphans, social unrest, social issues, homelessness, work force, employment, occupations, labor force, social services,

The HIV/AIDS Pandemic and the American Work Force . by Alice B. Clagett *

Published on 8 October 2016; revised 7 June 2017

  • SUPPRESSION OF 2014 HIV INCIDENCE DATA BY THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL
  • THE DUTY THAT GOVERNMENT HAS TO MAKE THIS HEALTH RISK CLEAR TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
  • HOW TO GET HIV HOME TESTS, AND WHICH TEST LOOKS MORE PROMISING
    • OraQuick HIV Home Test
    • Home Access Express HIV-1 Test System
  • ON MAKING CONFIDENTIAL HIV TESTING AVAILABLE AT OUR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOLS, AND HIGH SCHOOLS
  • ON FACILITATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN HIV-RESISTANT GENE POOL WORLDWIDE
  • ANTICIPATED DOWNTIME FOR OUR WORK FORCE AS A RESULT OF THE PANDEMIC
  • A SHORT-TERM STRATEGY FOR PRESERVING OUR WORK FORCE: ALLOWING OUR CHILDREN TO BEAR CHILDREN AT AN EARLY AGE; A RETURN TO CHASTITY AS A PRACTICAL IDEAL
    • Proposals
  • LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR PRESERVING OUR WORK FORCE: HOSPITAL AND LONG-TERM CARE FOR AIDS BABIES; GRASSROOTS ALTERNATIVE MEDICAL CARE
    • Proposals
  • ON THE CHANCE OF AIDS BABIES TO SURVIVE
  • ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR VARIOUS INDUSTRIES AS THE PANDEMIC PROGRESSES
  • A CALL TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE: LET US MEET THIS CHALLENGE WITH FAITH, HOPE, AND CHARITY TOWARD THOSE IN NEED

Dear Ones,

SUPPRESSION OF 2014 HIV INCIDENCE DATA BY THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL

As you may know, nearly all of the United States county-by-county data on HIV incidence were suppressed in the 2014 United States Centers for Disease Control HIV report. (1) The likely reason is that HIV incidence is on the rise in the United States, and disclosure of this rise in incidence has been concealed because it causes political inconvenience, particularly in a presidential election year.

THE DUTY THAT GOVERNMENT HAS TO MAKE THIS HEALTH RISK CLEAR TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

My first thought on this is, that those we vote into office have no right to conceal the truth from the American people, in the name of political expediency. When the fate of our children, and our children’s children is in the balance, it is the duty of our political representatives to tell us, their constituency, what lies before us as a people, so that we may be prepared for the future.

If these data are being suppressed because our government has not the means to treat the HIV pandemic, and feels despair in that regard, then we, the people, must make the necessary grassroots preparations, through our schools, our places of work, our churches, and our civic organizations, to come together in community and deal with what lies before us in the best possible way.

In order for this to happen, it is crucial that our government reveal to us what is currently known about HIV incidence in the United States. As Franklin D. Roosevelt, speaking to the challenge then faced by America, said in his inaugural address:

“This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory….” (2)

HOW TO GET HIV HOME TESTS, AND WHICH TEST LOOKS MORE PROMISING

I observe that the Obama administration has made the OraQuick HIV Home Test available for about $40 through the Rite-Aid Pharmacies, Walgreens, and CVS Pharmacy. (3) This test has 99% accuracy, but only if used 3 months after a risk event … though very reasonably priced, this test is, I feel, not as timely as the test described below:

The Home Access Express HIV-1 Test System (about $60) is available through CVS Pharmacies and Walgreens. (4) This test is 99.9% accurate … as accurate as the test at a doctor’s office, and, I feel, the better choice.

Here’s a question: Why would these products be now available over the counter? Is their availability not proof that there has been a rise in HIV incidence in the United States … an increase concerning enough to propel the Obama administration to provide these products over-the-counter without the need for a visit to a doctor’s office?

ON MAKING CONFIDENTIAL HIV TESTING AVAILABLE AT OUR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOLS, AND HIGH SCHOOLS

My feeling is, that as many as 40% of our youth may find themselves to be infected with the HIV virus by graduation from high school. I feel the infection may be taking place as early as elementary school level.

Proposal. The proof of this assertion … as well as its disproval … lies in our making free, voluntary, confidential HIV tests available to the students in our elementary schools, junior high schools, and high schools.

Knowing how many of our children are infected is very important to our children and their parents, and it’s also important to our schools, which may, in time, assume a leadership role in preserving the good health of our children, whether they be infected or not infected.

ON FACILITATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN HIV-RESISTANT GENE POOL WORLDWIDE

The HIV epidemic will eventually and inevitably sweep through the entire population of the United States, as it will in other countries.

The hope for continuation of our human population on planet Earth lies in those of our children who have a natural genetic resistance to the HIV virus. Their resistance must be such that they can survive, even though they have the virus, long enough to have children of their own. In this way, the resistant populations of children worldwide will eventuate an HIV-resistant global gene pool. In this lies the salvation and perpetuation of the human race on Earth.

How may this positive outcome be facilitated?

ANTICIPATED DOWNTIME FOR OUR WORK FORCE AS A RESULT OF THE PANDEMIC

One of the greatest concerns, in the short term, for our nation as for all the world’s nations during these trying times, is the preservation of a sufficiently large able-bodied work force to transition through this challenging time; sufficient manhours (and womanhours) must be available to allow us to continue providing our people with foodstuffs, heat, materials for construction of homes and businesses, and other staples.

Among those of our workers who now have the HIV infection, greater downtime must be anticipated. Their work schedules must be compassionately devised so as to take into account their need to keep their immune systems strong, and their need to take time off when they aren’t feeling well.

This anticipated increase in sick-leave and wellness leave among our HIV infected workers points out a need to provide for additional workers. Where will this HIV-free work force come from?

A SHORT-TERM STRATEGY FOR PRESERVING OUR WORK FORCE: ALLOWING OUR CHILDREN TO BEAR CHILDREN AT AN EARLY AGE; A RETURN TO CHASTITY AS A PRACTICAL IDEAL

In the short term, when our children reach puberty and before they are infected with the HIV virus, let us allow them to bear HIV-free children, rather than forcing them to abort these our grandchildren out of financial considerations.

Let the greater family unit assist in the rearing of these babies, who will may add to the HIV-free work force, thus bolstering the manpower gap caused by downtime among workers infected with HIV.

A further consideration is for parents to explain the facts of the HIV pandemic, the effect infection would have on their lifespan, and the advantages of chastity among our young couples who give birth at an early age. This will help them stay clear of HIV infection.

HIV infection among our children is a difficult thing to avoid, considering the tendency of mass media and virtual devices to proffer profligacy as a preferential lifestyle. If they do get the infection, there are guidelines to help them not pass on the infection to their children … see (5).

Proposals. In general, the strategy I propose to preserve our workforce is to allow our children to bear children young, to educate them as to the dangers posed by the HIV pandemic, and to help promote the ideals of practical chastity among our young.

Further, if we allow them to get confidential HIV tests at their schools, then they will be aware of prospective health problems for the children they are bearing as well as for themselves.

LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR PRESERVING OUR WORK FORCE: HOSPITAL AND LONG-TERM CARE FOR AIDS BABIES; GRASSROOTS ALTERNATIVE MEDICAL CARE

My feeling is, that more and more AIDS babies are being born. It could be that the statistics are not yet ‘out there’ because there is a cover-up going on, or it could be that hospitals have not yet put two and two together … they may not be testing all infants for AIDS, or they may be testing them, finding a greater incidence, and thinking that their city or town is just a particularly unlucky vicinity, as far as the HIV virus is concerned.

At present, the inevitability of the pandemic is simply not being put forth, and so, AIDS babies are often left at hospitals for adoption. As there is a great stigma attached to the virus, AIDS babies are less likely to be adopted than are healthy babies. It is also possible that some hospitals, whose have no clear understanding of the importance of keeping these babies alive, are euthanizing these infants or else allowing unfit couples to adopt them.

This notwithstanding, the long-term salvation of our people lies in preserving the lives of these AIDS babies. All the babies born in America will eventually be AIDS babies. From this gene pool will come the children who have sufficient resistance to the virus to carry on reproduction of our species. And so, long-term, we must do our very best to keep them alive.

Proposals. One possibility, as their numbers increase, might be the establishment of community orphanages, either through schools or through churches and civic organizations. These orphanages might be staffed by HIV-positive caregivers, possibly even parents who have lost their own children to the disease. I could see a Federal government subsidy for these orphanages as a natural likelihood.

Let us arrange, insofar as possible, for sufficient Western medicines for the virus to be provided through Obama care. For those not eligible for Obama care, let adequate provision of Western medicines be made. In the Western medicines should at some point become scarce, let us look into the efficacy of low-cost alternative medical care.

ON THE CHANCE OF AIDS BABIES TO SURVIVE

Infants in the womb can be infected with HIV through the mother’s blood, but this is less likely to happen if the mother is on HIV medications. Whether the baby has HIV won’t be known for sure till it is about 3 months old; this determination takes place after various tests are administered.

Babies who are infected with HIV and who don’t receive medical treatment generally live less than 3 years. Babies who receive medical treatment can live into their teens; there is hope that they may live much longer, but the statistics are not yet available. (6)

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR VARIOUS INDUSTRIES AS THE PANDEMIC PROGRESSES

Transportation, postal services, and telecommunication may be come more localized.

Electric supply may become intermittent … available, say, 4 hours a day, or only at hospital operating rooms and other important locations, such as law enforcement, for instance. This is not a great catastrophe; rather, it is more like the current situation in undeveloped nations.

Medical care may become less available, and promising alternative healing modalities should be sought out at the grassroots level now, while time avails.

It is likely that children will be entering the workforce much younger, the consequence being less demand for higher education.

Luxury industries will likely fall by the wayside.

A CALL TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE: LET US MEET THIS CHALLENGE WITH FAITH, HOPE, AND CHARITY TOWARD THOSE IN NEED

Any great challenge that a nation faces, also provides an opportunity for its people to grow in courage, and in compassionate outreach, and to build a stronger sense of family and community. As President Ronald Reagan said in his 1984 State of the Union Message:

“… our greatest hope for the future, are the minds and hearts of our people, especially our children. We can help them build tomorrow by strengthening our community of shared values… For us, faith, work, family, neighborhood, freedom, and peace are not just words; they’re expressions of what America means, definitions of what makes us a good and loving people. Families stand at the center of our society….” (7)

Let us not fall into a torpor of disconsolation, nor into the pit of despair. Rather, let us join hands with our brothers and sisters and help each other through the coming times. Truly, the only thing we have to fear is not knowing what lies before us. Through knowing, we shall plan. Through faith, through hope, and through works of compassionate charity, we shall overcome all obstacles, and triumph as a people.

In love, light and joy,
Alice B. Clagett
I Am of the Stars

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OVERVIEWS

Link: “Overview of the HIV Pandemic, and of Data Suppression by the Centers for Disease Control,” by Alice B. Clagett *, 10 July 2016, updated on 6 July 2017 … http://wp.me/p2Rkym-5QE .. 

Link: “Overview of Surgical Risk, HIV, AIDS, Hepatitis, and Hard Drugs,” by Alice B. Clagett *, 17 October 2016, updated on 6 July 2017 … http://wp.me/p2Rkym-6gY ..

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FOOTNOTES

(1) See Link: “Suppression of 2014 Data on the US HIV Pandemic,” by Alice B. Clagett, 17 June 2016 … http://wp.me/p2Rkym-5zq … and Link: “Overview of the HIV Pandemic, and of Data Suppression by the Centers for Disease Control ,” by Alice B. Clagett … http://wp.me/p2Rkym-5QE ..

(2) Citation: Franklin D. Roosevelt, Inaugural Address, March 4, 1933, as published in Samuel Rosenman, ed., The Public Papers of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Volume Two: The Year of Crisis, 1933 (New York: Random House, 1938), 11–16 … http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5057/ … Speeches given by employees of the Federal government are in the public domain … see http://www.newmediarights.org/business_models/artist/are_historical_speeches_public_domain ..

(3) See Link: OraQuick HIV Home Test at Rite-Aid, https://shop.riteaid.com/oraquick-in-home-hiv-test-0371651 … at Walgreens: https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/oraquick-in-home-hiv-test/ID=prod6118162-product … and at CVS Pharmacy, https://www.cvs.com/shop/sexual-health/pregnancy-fertility/hiv-tests/oraquick-in-home-hiv-test-prodid-1170321?skuId=896631 ..

(4) See Link: Home Access Express HIV-1 Test System at CVS Pharmacies: https://www.cvs.com/shop/sexual-health/pregnancy-fertility/hiv-tests/home-access-hiv-test-express-prodid-651307?skuId=651307 … and at Walgreens …  https://www.walgreens.com/store/c/home-access-express-hiv-1-test-system/ID=prod5135-product ..

(5) See Link: “HIV and Pregnancy: Preventing Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV after Birth,” 17 August 2015 … https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/education-materials/fact-sheets/24/71/preventing-mother-to-child-transmission-of-hiv-after-birth ..

(6) See Link: “Life Expectancy for Babies Born with HIV” … http://www.thebody.com/Forums/AIDS/Women/Q157332.html ..

(7) Citation: Pres. Reagan’s 1984 State of the Union message to Congress , Jan 25, 1984, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=40205 … Speeches given by employees of the Federal government are in the public domain … See http://www.newmediarights.org/business_models/artist/are_historical_speeches_public_domain ..

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history, community health, HIV, AIDS, HIV pandemic, HIV epidemic, economy, industries, work force, faith, hope, charity, gene pool, resistant population, AIDS babies, Home Access Express HIV-1 Test System, chastity, abortion, orphanages, Federal aid, social issues, HIV coverup, AIDS coverup, HIV data suppression, AIDS data suppression, AIDS,