Tag Archives: manpower

Community Health: Zero Population Growth in the United States by 2079? . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 4 December 2019

  • ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES BY 2079?
  • ON THE NEED TO RESEARCH ECONOMIC IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH DOWNTREND
    • Financial Sector
    • Health Care Sector

Dear Ones,

In light of the global HIV pandemic, I researched a United States population growth rate chart, to find out if perhaps the spread of HIV in the United States (as well as other factors) might be having an effect on population growth.

ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES BY 2079?

Here is the chart I found …

Link: “Population Growth for the United States (1960-2018)” … https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOPGROWUSA ..

As I saw a general downtrend in population growth, I took a look at a table on the topic …

Link: “Population of the United States (Current year and historical)” … https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ ..

Here is a very rough extrapolation based on the tabular data …

In 1960, the yearly change in United States population was 1.69 %
In 1990, the yearly change in United States population was 0.95 %
In 2019, the yearly change in United States population was 0.60 %

In the ~60 years from 1960 to 2019, the decrease in the increase in the United States population was 1.69 % minus 0.60 % = 1.09 %

If this trend continues for the next 60 years, then there may be zero population growth in the United States population by 2079.

ON THE NEED TO RESEARCH ECONOMIC IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH DOWNTREND

In case this scenario should prove true, I feel it would be good to do workups on economic gear-downs for the various economic sectors, to do with man-hours available and necessary production.

Financial Sector

In the arena of finance, we might consider the impact of zero population growth on the stock market, on the value of a dollar, and on interest rates for the time span between now and the year 2109.

Health Care Sector

Should it be that the HIV pandemic is one of the driving factors in an ongoing decrease in population growth (as HIV couples are unlikely to have viable offspring), then the health care sector might want to consider the impact of HIV on medical care costs, on our ability to maintain necessary supplies of medications despite an aging and health-challenged population, and on the sustainability of the Obamacare program.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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HIV pandemic, AIDS pandemic, United States population, economics, finance, stock market, banks, manpower, zero population growth, Community health, population,

New HIV / AIDS Statistics from Truvada . by Alice B. Clagett

Published on 25 February 2019; updated on 25 April 2020
Statistics below are from 2015 unless otherwise indicated.

  • UNITED STATES: STATES WITH HIGHEST HIV INCIDENCE
  • GREATER INCIDENCE OF HIV IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
  • STATISTICS FOR RECIPIENTS OF RECTAL SEX
  • STATISTICS FOR MEN HAVING SEX WITH MEN, AND THE ISSUE OF SECRET MALE BISEXUALITY
    • Impact of Secret Bisexuality on Life Expectancy of Wives and Children
  • THE GREATER HIV INCIDENCE AMONGST HISPANICS AND AFRICAN AMERICANS
  • THE VERY HIGH TRANSGENDER HIV STATISTICS
  • DIAGNOSED HIV INCIDENCE VERY DIFFERENT FOR MEN AND WOMEN IN THE UNITED STATES
  • CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN, AS WELL AS MEN, TESTING FOR HIV ANNUALLY
  • HOW TO GET AN HIV TEST
  • THE DANGER OF YOUNG CHILDREN CONTRACTING HIV
    • Is the Drug Trade Targeting Young Children?
    • Are Youth Contracting HIV from Drug Peddlers?
    • Likelihood of ‘Blooms’ of HIV amongst Youth in Communities Nationwide
    • Increase in After-School Petty Crime May Forewarn of Youth HIV ‘Blooms’
  • LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR CHILDREN WHO HAVE HIV
  • HOMELESS AND OUT-OF-WORK CITIZENS AS A MANPOWER RESOURCE FOR TOWNS HARD HIT BY THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC
  • THE IMPORTANCE OF NURTURING HIV POSITIVE NEWBORNS
  • 300-YEAR PROJECTION WITH REGARD TO MINIMUM VIABLE HUMAN POPULATION
  • THE OUTLOOK FOR HUMANKIND
  • MORE INFORMATION

Dear Ones,

Those of you who have been reading my Community Health blogs on the global HIV-AIDS pandemic may know that I have felt for some time now that HIV-AIDS incidence in the United States has been underreported, partly because of the AIDS stigma, and partly because of insufficient testing in the United States, including testing of men, women and children, regardless of their perceived sexual orientation; or, in the case of young children, of their perceived degree of sexual activity.

I have come across new statistics from Truvada on the HIV-AIDS pandemic in the United States. According to Truvada, currently 1 in 100 Americans are likely to be diagnosed HIV-positive in their lifetime …

Link: “Truvada” … https://www.truvadahcp.com/retrospective-impact-analysis ..

That page is full of information and very long. I see Truvada’s source for this information is …

Link: “2016 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections,” by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), published 2016, accessed 8 June 2017 … https://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/newsroom/2016/croi-2016.html ..

UNITED STATES: STATES WITH HIGHEST HIV INCIDENCE

According to the Truvada website, the statistics vary greatly from state to state, here in America. For instance, in Washington, DC, the lifetime risk of HIV diagnosis is 1 in every 13 people. In Maryland, the risk is 1 in 49. Other states with risk ranging from 1 in 51 to 1 in 97 (which is to say, among the highest in the nation) are Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, New York, Texas, New Jersey, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, and Alabama (the first listed being the states with higher incidence).

States with risk ranging from 1 in 402 to 1 in 670 (which is to say, among the lowest in the nation) are South Dakota, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Vermont, Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota (the last listed being the states with lower incidence).

GREATER INCIDENCE OF HIV IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES

Here is a map from the Centers for Disease Control CDC), using 2018 data, indicating that the Southern states, together with Nevada, New York, and Maryland have the highest rates of HIV diagnosis annually … https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/nchhstpatlas/maps.html … Among southern states, I see that Alabama has a little lower than the highest category of rates.

I note as well that many of these states have voted not to offer expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act …

Link: “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion by state,” by Kurykh, 19 September 2013, in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid#/media/File:ACA_Medicaid_expansion_by_state.svg ..

That might affect availability of healthcare for HIV and AIDS in some low per capita income Southern areas. It looks like the Centers for Disease Control have recognized the need for more HIV and AIDS health resources to be dedicated to the South, and have begun providing these …

Link: “HIV Prevention in the South: Aligning CDC’s Funding with Current HIV Trends” (2010 and 2015 data) https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/policies/cdc-hiv-south-graphic.pdf ..

STATISTICS FOR RECIPIENTS OF RECTAL SEX

According to the Truvada statistics, among men who have sex with men, receptive rectal sex partners are at high risk of contracting HIV … 13 times more so than are insertive partners.

Truvada does not have statistics on this, but I feel the risk may be just as high (and for similar biological reasons) for women who are receptive rectal sex partners. For more on this, from an energetic and intuitive point of view, search my site for the word: rectal

STATISTICS FOR MEN HAVING SEX WITH MEN, AND THE ISSUE OF SECRET MALE BISEXUALITY

Again according to the Truvada statistics, the risk of HIV infection is 83 times greater amongst men having sex with men, than it is amongst heterosexual men. This brings up the question how many men are bisexual, passing for heterosexual? As an intuitive, I feel this number to be a good deal higher than the socially accepted notion.

For a married bisexual man, passing as purely heterosexual for the sake of social convention, I feel the likelihood of HIV infection might be close to that for purely homosexual men.

Impact of Secret Bisexuality on Life Expectancy of Wives and Children

As well, I feel the likelihood would be high that a secretly bisexual man might not share a positive HIV status with his wife. The results of this secrecy would be decreased life expectancy for the wife, due to her ignorance of the need for antiretroviral treatment (ART), and the risk of the wife passing on HIV to her newborns, and to her older children, through bodily fluids contact (due to her ignorance of the need to take precautions).

THE GREATER HIV INCIDENCE AMONGST HISPANICS AND AFRICAN AMERICANS

The greater Truvada-reported incidence of HIV infection amongst MSM Hispanics and African Americans may have to do with socioeconomic status and affordability of condoms; this is just an intuitive thought … I have no way to back it up factually.

THE VERY HIGH TRANSGENDER HIV STATISTICS

According to the Truvada statistics, of the 1.4 million transgender Americans, about 1 in 5 are HIV positive. Truvada estimates the risk that a transgender woman will have HIV is 34 times more than that for adults who identify with their birth sex.

Intuitively speaking, this may have to do with a greater proportion of transgender Americans being polyamorous, or maybe being employed as sex workers? For instance, in Wikipedia I read that about 13 percent of transgender women have participated in the sex trade …

Link: “Transgender sex worker,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transgender_sex_worker ..

… compared to 1 percent of American women overall …

Link: “How Many Prostitutes Are in the United States and the Rest of the World? (General Reference: not clearly pro or con)” in ProCon.org, 11 January 2018 … https://prostitution.procon.org/questions/how-many-prostitutes-are-in-the-united-states-and-the-rest-of-the-world/ ..

My thought on that is, it could be that the greater the number of sexual partners, either through polyamory or through sex work, the greater the likelihood of contracting an STD, including an increased likelihood of contracting HIV. This is just a thought; I do not have the statistics on it.

DIAGNOSED HIV INCIDENCE VERY DIFFERENT FOR MEN AND WOMEN IN THE UNITED STATES

Again according to Truvada, the risk of men being diagnosed as HIV positive is more than three times greater than that for women. I believe this may be because men are more aware of the need to test, and if they test positive, are unwilling to let their wives know that, because of the social stigma.

CRITICAL IMPORTANCE OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN, AS WELL AS MEN, TESTING FOR HIV ANNUALLY

I cannot overemphasize the importance of everyone in America testing annually, provided they have not yet been diagnosed HIV-positive. This includes women and children as well.

HOW TO GET AN HIV TEST

A while ago I read that, here in California, physicians were required to report social security numbers of AIDS patients to Sacramento, the reason for this being that documentation of the social security numbers would prevent duplicate reporting and consequent false inflation of the AIDS statistics here. Whether this also applies to positive HIV results here in California, I do not know. And no doubt, required documentation on the progress of the pandemic varies state by state.

Intuitively, I feel that the thought of being reported to Sacramento may cause people to avoid testing. They may feel, possibly because of the earlier social stigma of AIDS, that something just awful might happen to them if Sacramento finds out. Maybe their friends and neighbors will find out. Maybe they will lose their jobs because of it. Maybe they will not be welcome at church anymore. Maybe their children will be expelled from school because of it.

These kinds of fears may needlessly prevent Americans from testing for HIV, here in California, even though Medicaid and Medicare provide for annual HIV and AIDS tests: People may delay in testing, through concern that positive results here in California might be reported to Sacramento, and that they might be subject to community disparagement because of test results.

For those concerned about the social stigma of a positive HIV diagnosis, it is good to know that the large drug stores such as Rite-Aid, Walgreens, and CVS carry HIV diagnosis kits on the shelves near their pharmacies.

My understanding is that the saliva test available from the large drug stores is about 90% accurate, provided the test is done a month or more after sexual contact. Ninety percent is not such a good rate of accuracy, but the advantage, for those concerned about the AIDS stigma, is that if you pay cash for the kit at a pharmacy where no one knows you, then no one will know you took the test, and no one will know your diagnosis. And also, you will know the test results immediately.

There is another test available at some of the large pharmacies … a blood test for HIV. My understanding is that this type of test is about 98% accurate, for those who wait a month after sexual contact before testing. That is a pretty good rate of accuracy, but as I understand it, the blood sample must be sent out to a lab, which means that the lab will know the results of your test. Further, it will take time to get the test results back from the lab.

It is also possible, in some cases, to go to a Family Urgent Care clinic and pay cash for an on-the-spot HIV blood test. This would be a good alternative, I feel, for those in communities with Family Urgent Care clinics so equipped, and for whom time and accuracy are of the essence.

Once a person tests HIV positive, then the thing to do, I feel, would be to ask their physician about available antiretroviral treatments (ART). According to what I have read, ART is very helpful in delaying the occasional outbreaks of AIDS sickness that occur amongst those Americans with the virus. I have also read that Medicaid and Medicare insurance will cover medical treatment.

THE DANGER OF YOUNG CHILDREN CONTRACTING HIV

Is the Drug Trade Targeting Young Children?

Intuitively, from the clair plane, I feel that the drug trade is now targeting preschool children, with 8-year-old children as drug peddlers. Young children have insufficient money to purchase drugs, once addicted, may turn to petty theft from cars and homes to pay for continued drug use.

Are Youth Contracting HIV from Drug Peddlers?

Pertinent to the global HIV pandemic, and again, intuitively speaking, it seems to me that adult drug peddlers sometimes may offer drugs to young children in exchange for sex. Adult drug peddlers are higher risk for HIV and AIDS; thus the danger exists of young children getting HIV because of drug addiction.

Likelihood of ‘Blooms’ of HIV amongst Youth in Communities Nationwide

Because of permissive sexual practices among young people today, it seems to me likely that, once one sexually active child in a school contracts HIV, the likelihood will be that most of the children will have HIV with six months or a year.

Increase in After-School Petty Crime May Forewarn of Youth HIV ‘Blooms’

Again in clair vision, I feel this is creating ‘hot spots’ of youth pandemic nationwide. My feeling is, youth testing, again because of the AIDS stigma, is woefully lacking in most locales; I may be wrong about this, though. If my intuition turns out to be true, then a way to predict HIV blooms amongst youth in America would be to tabulate after-school petty theft from automobiles and homes … These might indicate that drugs are being sold to school children.

LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR CHILDREN WHO HAVE HIV

As you may know, to date there is insufficient research on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for youth; the difficulty being that the drugs used for adults may prove damaging to the bodies of growing children. Thus, infection with HIV is more dangerous for young children, than for adults, and has a much greater impact on their life expectancy.

The data on life expectancy for children in their teens who contract HIV are better than for newborns and toddlers who contract HIV. My feeling is, this may be because teens have less length of time to wait before antiretroviral treatment can begin, than do very young children.

There is, as I understand it, a high likelihood that people with HIV will have newborns who are diagnosed HIV positive. Most newborns so diagnosed, as nearly as I can tell, are not surviving to puberty. Thus a young local population that has a ‘bloom’ of HIV infection is unlikely to have viable offspring.

HOMELESS AND OUT-OF-WORK CITIZENS AS A MANPOWER RESOURCE FOR TOWNS HARD HIT BY THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC

The life expectancy of people who contract HIV in adulthood is much greater than that for those who contract HIV in youth, because of the availability of antiretroviral treatment for adults, and the relative lack of availability of ART for youth.

Thus the likely scenario of blooms of HIV incidence amongst youth in communities here and there, across America, to do with the drug trade, and resulting in inability of youth to have viable offspring. Towns with such HIV blooms amongst youth will, in the coming decade, most likely experience a projected demographic of stagnant or declining workforce.

In situations where American towns experience such a demographic because of the pandemic’s effect on their youth, the nation’s homeless and out-of-work population may be seen to be a resource for manpower in the decades to come. These homeless and out-of-work citizens may take the place, in the work force of towns hard hit by the pandemic, of the children of today’s children that cannot be anticipated to survive.

Even those of the homeless and out-of-work sector who test positive for HIV may provide many years of manpower to their communities, provided they have access to current antiretroviral treatments (ART).

THE IMPORTANCE OF NURTURING HIV POSITIVE NEWBORNS

In every plague past of humankind, there has emerged a population of plague-resistant remaining human beings. I have no doubt but what that will be the case with the worldwide HIV pandemic.

The issue is, to preserve the health of as many newborns as possible, even if they are HIV positive, as some of these newborns may survive, and may have HIV-resistant genes that allow their immune systems to be healthy, despite the infection. I see from this article that about 1 percent of Caucasians may be HIV-resistant …

Link: “Is Anyone Immune to HIV? A genetic mutation that blocks HIV may hold the key to future treatment and, perhaps, a cure,” by Elaine Mendus and Trudy Ring, 23 March 2016 … https://www.hivplusmag.com/research-breakthroughs/2016/3/23/anyone-immune-hiv ..

I feel certain that other races and cultures will be found to have individuals with HIV-resistant genes as well.

Thus my own estimate for an HIV-resistant group of people worldwide, who are able to produce viable offspring, is in the more hopeful range of 10 to 20 percent of the current world population

300-YEAR PROJECTION WITH REGARD TO MINIMUM VIABLE HUMAN POPULATION

The world population is now 7.53 billion. Were this population to be reduced to 1 percent over the next 300 years, the world population will have declined to 75.3 million. From my reading, this is well above the minimum viable population for humankind …

Link: “Minimum viable population,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_viable_population ..

If my more hopeful estimate of 10 to 20 percent HIV-resistant people worldwide were to prove true, then the prospects for continuance of humankind on Earth would be all the better.

Thus my intuitive projection, going forward, is that there will be a decline in population over the next few centuries, and a strengthening of the human gene pool. There is, I feel, an excellent likelihood that humankind will retain a firm footing amongst Earth species, and with a lesser ongoing negative impact on the ecosphere.

THE OUTLOOK FOR HUMANKIND

This is a pandemic like any other. Infection is not a mark of disparagement or a social put-down; no more so than was the case with other pandemics in human history. The more compassionate understanding and loving kindness each community can bring to bear in regard to this very difficult situation, the better it will be for everyone.

As the pandemic continues on a global scale, our best hopes for humankind lie, in the short term, in increased awareness of the prevalence of the pandemic, in lowering of AIDS stigma consciousness, and in voluntary annual testing by men, women, and children of all ages, with medical treatment for those who test positive.

In the mid term, there is hope for healthwise changes in sexual practices, and for new medical regimes. And in the long term, our hope as humankind lies in the presence in our gene pool of HIV-resistant populations.

I ask God’s blessing for each of us, in these difficult times. May we all be blessed with good health, abundance, and happiness in the coming years.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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MORE INFORMATION

Link: “2016 HIV Lifetime Risk Statistics from Centers for Disease Control,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 30 March 2019 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-c3f ..

Link: “Compendium: HIV / AIDS Pandemic,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 2 March 2019; revised on 3 April 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-bPl ..

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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
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Community Health, HIV, AIDS, homeless, MSM, M2M, homosexuality, heterosexuality, bisexuality, children and HIV, newborns and HIV, Truvada, HIV resistance, AIDS resistance, social stigma, homelessness, vagrancy, joblessness, work force, manpower, drug war, transgender, HIV tests, California AIDS reportability, minimum viable population, one-upmanship, workforce, societal expectations,

Does ‘Safe Sex’ Prevent HIV / AIDS Transmission? . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 14 June 2018

  • SAFE SURGERY: RISK OF GLOVE PERFORATION DURING SURGERY
    • Self-Assessment and Segregation of HIV-Infected Surgeons to HIV-Infected Patient Groups
  • SAFE INCARCERATION: MITIGATING HIV / AIDS ‘BLOOMS’ IN PENAL INSTITUTIONS
  • COMPARISON OF SURGICAL GLOVE PERFORATION STATISTICS TO STATISTICS ON CONDOM BREAKAGE
  • RISK MITIGATION THROUGH DOUBLE BAGGING
    • Glove Perforation Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging During Surgery
    • Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging Condoms During Sexual Intercourse
  • THE IMPORTANCE OF SLOWING DOWN THE COURSE OF A PANDEMIC
    • Uninfected Children Can Help Strengthen the Workforce of the Next Five Decades
    • Are HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Being Born Worldwide?
    • Insurance Availability of Voluntary Annual HIV Testing in the United States
    • Nurturing HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Will Strengthen Our Gene Pool
  •  ATTENUATION: THE NORMAL COURSE OF A PANDEMIC
    • Mortality Rate During the 1918 Flu Pandemic, Compared to the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic
    • Pandemics: A More Benign Infecting Agent Over Time? Or a Stronger Human Gene Pool?
  • MORE INFORMATION

Dear Ones,

SAFE SURGERY: RISK OF GLOVE PERFORATION DURING SURGERY

A while ago I did a blog on the effectiveness of surgical gloving in preventing blood taint during surgeries …

Link: “Compendium: Surgical Risk, HIV / AIDS, Hepatitis, and Hard Drugs,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 17 October 2016; updated on 6 July 2017 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-6gY ..

Here is the paper that was reviewed in the blog …

Link: “Occult Glove Perforation during Ophthalmic Surgery,” by Leonard Apt, MD, and (by invitation) Kevin M. Miller, MD, Tr. Am. Ophth. Soc., Vol. LXXXX, 1992 … http://europepmc.org/backend/ptpmcrender.fcgi?accid=PMC1298427&blobtype=pdf ..

In the paper, if I understand it correctly, Drs. Apt and Miller found a 15.0% incidence of surgically induced glove perforations over seven months.

In other words, if there is a 15% chance that a doctor’s surgical gloves might be perforated in 7 months, then there is a 15% chance of blood tainting during a medical procedure that involves exposure to a patient’s blood while it is in his or her body. According to the laws of probability, as I understand it, that would be a 15% chance of virus transmission with each surgery.

Self-Assessment and Segregation of HIV-Infected Surgeons to HIV-Infected Patient Groups

From this I deduced the possible danger to doctors of their being infected with HIV or hepatitis while they were wearing surgical gloves while doing operations. This then, might be a source point for HIV / AIDS ‘blooms’ as the pandemic progresses, unless the medical self-assesses and limits surgeries by infected surgeons to infected patient groups.

SAFE INCARCERATION: MITIGATING HIV / AIDS ‘BLOOMS’ IN PENAL INSTITUTIONS

As an aside, I feel that the incidence of HIV / AIDS ‘blooms’ in penal institutions … correctional facilities or prison … might be mitigated in a similar manner; that is, if correctional institutions self-assess and limit policing by infected correctional officers to infected groups of prisoners. The possibility of a correctional facility HIV / AIDS ‘bloom’ has to do with the practice of rape in these facilities, whether among prisoners, or by correctional facility officers. Prison rape is a practice just now beginning to be brought to light and figured into the pandemic equation.

COMPARISON OF SURGICAL GLOVE PERFORATION STATISTICS TO STATISTICS ON CONDOM BREAKAGE

To return to the article by Drs. Apt and Miller: That article got me thinking about how that finding might apply to the wearing of condoms during sexual intercourse. I think that there’s some congruence there.

Other factors being equal, might it be that wearing a condom during the act of sex might incur a 15% chance of HIV, hepatitis, or other virus transmission with every act of sexual intercourse? I’ve read an article by Planned Parenthood that supports this …

Link: “What are the chances of getting pregnant with a condom?,” by Emily@Planned Parenthood, 18 December 2017 … https://www.plannedparenthood.org/learn/teens/ask-experts/what-are-the-chances-of-getting-pregnant-with-a-condom ..

According to the article, among heterosexual couples where the man uses a condom during sexual intercourse, 18 in 100 of the women will become pregnant each year.

Among heterosexual couples where the woman uses a female condom, 21 in 100 women yearly will become pregnant.

Thus there is an 18% or 21% ‘ineffectiveness’ rate through condom use amongst heterosexual couples yearly. This figure is reasonably close to the 15% ‘ineffectiveness’ factor found by Drs. Apt and Miller for surgical glove protection.

Thus, we might extrapolate that a 15% to 21% annual effectiveness rate for prevention of STD virus transmission might be attained by using condoms, whether M2F, M2M, or F2F.

In other words, 15% to 21% of people using condoms for ‘safe sex’ might be anticipated to contract HIV or hepatitis annually, if their partner is infected.

RISK MITIGATION THROUGH DOUBLE BAGGING

Glove Perforation Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging During Surgery

The study by Drs. Apt and Miller discussed at some length the advantages of wearing two pairs of surgical gloves during surgery … of ‘double gloving’. Their retroactive findings were interesting, but inconclusive. One of the factors that needed to be looked at in future studies was correlation of location of punctures in inner and outer gloves worn during surgery. Were these to correlate … in other words, in cases of perforation of both gloves at one location … then, most likely, the risk of viral transmission, in cases where either the surgeon or the patient is infected, would be greater.

Then, in surgical cases, much might depend on the type of surgery being performed. For instance, hip arthroplasties … that is, total hip replacement surgeries … there is rough work involved. These surgeries must be done by physically strong surgeons. Manipulation of the joints may, I feel, result in greater likelihood of glove puncture. That is just my thought on it, without my doing any research on it. So it seemed to me that studies ought to be planned regarding correlation of location of punctures in inner and outer gloves worn during these types of surgery.

Risk Mitigation by Double Bagging Condoms During Sexual Intercourse

Wikipedia states that ‘double bagging’ … using two condoms instead of one … offers greater protection …

“‘Double bagging’, using two condoms at once, is often believed to cause a higher rate of failure due to the friction of rubber on rubber. This claim is not supported by research. The limited studies that have been done found that the simultaneous use of multiple condoms decreases the risk of condom breakage.” –from Link: “Condom,” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condom … CC BY-SA 3.0

Planned Parenthood has more to say on this …

Link: “Fact Sheet: The Truth about Condoms,” by Planned Parenthood, July 2011 …  https://www.plannedparenthood.org/files/9313/9611/6384/truth_about_condoms.pdf ..

Under the subheading “Double Bagging,” they mention that three studies indicate double bagging … wearing two condoms … is effective in decreasing the risk of condoms breaking. One of the studies stated that double bagging decreased the risk of HIV transmission from 1.8% to only 0.2%. The study in question was …

Citation: “Multiple Condom Use and Decreased Condom Breakage and Shippage in Thailand,” by Rugpao, Sugwal, et al., February 1997, in Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
and Human Retrovirology,14(2), 169–173.

That would mean that single bagging results in a 98.2% effectiveness (that is 100% less 1.8%), and that double bagging results in 99.8% effectiveness (that is, 100% less 0.2%), as to the risks of condom breakage during sexual intercourse.

What do these percentages mean, in terms of the probability of HIV transmission? If the risk of condom breakage decreases from 1.8% to 0.2% with double bagging, then the risk, with double bagging, is only 10% as great as with single bagging.

Planned Parenthood translates 98% effectiveness as meaning, in a practical context, that 18% of heterosexual women using condoms will become pregnant each year. Were this risk to be 10% as great, then, presumably, only 2 women in 100 would become pregnant annually.

This pregnancy rate presumably correlates to condom breakage or slippage; thus the statistics might also apply to transmission of HIV and hepatitis. What we have then, is a potentially very significant mitigation of the rate of transmission of HIV and hepatitis through double bagging during sexual intercourse.

THE IMPORTANCE OF SLOWING DOWN THE COURSE OF A PANDEMIC

Slowing down the course of the HIV pandemic is important, both in terms of mitigation of human suffering, and also in terms of stabilization of the work force, and of available manpower, so as to keep our economy as strong and healthy as that of other nations, all of which are being impacted by the HIV / AIDS pandemic.

Uninfected Children Can Help Strengthen the Workforce of the Next Five Decades

The more we are able to slow down the course of the pandemic, worldwide, the greater will be the numbers of uninfected children born to the upcoming generation. These children, along with people now adults and uninfected, will strengthen our workforce during the next five decades.

Are HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Being Born Worldwide?

Slowing down the course of the pandemic will also allow the human gene pool a ‘leg up’ in the natural course of selecting for a population that is resistant to HIV. More and more babies are being born already infected with HIV. The scant literature on mortality rates leans toward these babies not surviving to adulthood; but the truth is, data on this topic are woefully inadequate, as yet.

For instance, it is possible that babies are being born in the world today, who have the HIV infection. But because they appear to be perfectly normal, no one knows that they carry HIV. This might be the case, for instance, in Africa, where health care resources are less available.

Insurance Availability of Voluntary Annual HIV Testing in the United States

It might also be the case here in the United States, where annual HIV testing … though paid for by Medicare and other government programs … is seldom taken advantage of. This is most likely due, I feel, to backwardness of physician guidelines regarding the HIV pandemic. That would be easy to fix, though, by updating physicians on the advisability of annual HIV testing, and of testing newborns for HIV.

Nurturing HIV-Positive Newborns Who Are Resistant to HIV Will Strengthen Our Gene Pool

Thus it is possible that children are being born, here in the United States, and also worldwide, who are resistant to the HIV virus; who are able to lead healthy lives, and to bear healthy children. On this very likely possibility, it would be wholly inadvisable to react to the birth of HIV-positive children in our hospitals, with a policy of euthanasia. This type of policy would place our nation at a disadvantage, as regards other nations, in birthing a generation of children who have HIV, but are naturally resistant to the virus.

Putting the breaks on the rate of the pandemic … through double bagging, through voluntary annual testing and voluntary testing of newborns, and also through education on the risks and rewards of various sexual lifestyle choices … will allow the United States time and resources to nurture HIV-positive newborns, rather than making the short-sighted choice to euthanize them as a cost-saving measure.

These will be children who will be able to bear viable children, despite the infection, in years to come. Thus, slowing down the course of the pandemic will allow our human gene pool a ‘leg up’ in the natural course of selecting for a population that is resistant to HIV.

ATTENUATION: THE NORMAL COURSE OF A PANDEMIC

Mortality Rate During the 1918 Flu Pandemic, Compared to the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic

We can expect that the HIV of future generations will be much different from the HIV of today. Such was the case with the influenza epidemic of the early 1900s … In the 1900s, the flu was very deadly, striking down one in every 10 to 20 people …

“The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died. With about a third of the world population infected, this case-fatality ratio means 3% to 6% of the entire global population died.” –from Link: “1918 Flu Pandemic,” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic … CC BY 3.0

Yet today, many people successfully survive infection with influenza. For instance, in the 2009-2010 Swine flu … H1N1 … pandemic, 1 in 5 people were infected, but the mortality rate was only 0.2% …

Link: “Swine flu infected 1 in 5, death rate low, study shows,” by Kate Kelland, 25 January 2013 … https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-h1n1-pandemic/swine-flu-infected-1-in-5-death-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125 ..

Pandemics: A More Benign Infecting Agent Over Time? Or a Stronger Human Gene Pool?

As I understand it, this is the normal progress of a pandemic: Those who are genetically most susceptible to the infecting agent are likely to pass on, in either the first or the second generation of the pandemic. Others, with genes more capable of withstanding the impact of the infecting agent, survive. The result, over time, is a gene pool more capable of resisting the impact of the infecting agent.

From our human standpoint, over time, it appears that the infecting agent has become more benign. But in fact, it is our human gene pool that has become more viable.

This is the normal course of pandemics in human populations. Were we to look at the course of pandemics in domestic animal populations, we would most likely find correlation.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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MORE INFORMATION

Link: “Compendium: Surgical Risk, HIV / AIDS, Hepatitis, and Hard Drugs,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 17 October 2016; updated on 6 July 2017 …  https://wp.me/p2Rkym-6gY ..

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HIV, HIV pandemic, AIDS, AIDS pandemic, economic, work force, manpower, safe surgery, safe sex, surgical glove perforation, safe incarceration, HIV blooms, AIDS blooms, penal institutions, correctional facilities, prisons, condom breakage, double bagging, HIV-positive newborns, HIV-resistant children, 1918 Flu pandemic, 1918 influenza pandemic, 2009 swine flu pandemic, H1N1 pandemic, pandemic attenuation, viral attenuation, gene pool, viable gene pool, genetic, correctional system, Economics, workforce,

Would It Be Good If the CIA Took Over the Drug Trade in the United States? . by Alice B. Clagett *

Written and published on 24 April 2018

  • CONSPIRACY THEORY ALLEGATIONS OF CIA DRUG TRADING IN DECADES PAST
  • THE DEFEAT OF THE WAR ON DRUGS?
  • RHETORICAL QUESTION: WHAT IF THE CIA WERE TO SEEK TO MONOPOLIZE THE DRUG TRADE IN THE UNITED STATES?
    • Overview: Potential Negative Outcomes
    • Putative Use of Released Felons as ‘Soldiers’ and Drug Runner for the CIA: Potential Negative Outcomes
    • Long-Term Potential Negative Outcomes: Decentralization of Government and Establishment of Drug Warlords Owing Fealty and Tribute to the CIA
  • ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
    • A Substitute Plan for the CIA to Garner Money for Our Government by Nationalizing and Administering Tobacco Sales, with Doubled Taxes
    • A Preferable Alternate Strategy: Legalization and Taxation of Recreational Drugs

Dear Ones,

This blog is mostly a ‘what if’ based on ruminations about ‘psy in the sky’ regarding the CIA and the drug trade in America. It presents various putative scenarios, along with putative negative and positive outcomes …

CONSPIRACY THEORY ALLEGATIONS OF CIA DRUG TRADING IN DECADES PAST

I was reading an article in Wikipedia about allegations of CIA drug trading in decades past …

Link: “Allegations of CIA drug trafficking,” in Wikipedia …  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_CIA_drug_trafficking ..

THE DEFEAT OF THE WAR ON DRUGS?

I have heard, here and there, that the United States is ‘losing the war on drugs’, at least in terms of the current fight strategy. For instance, here is an article from Stanford University on the topic …

Link: “The United States War on Drugs – Stanford University” …  https://web.stanford.edu/class/e297c/poverty_prejudice/paradox/htele.html ..

RHETORICAL QUESTION: WHAT IF THE CIA WERE TO SEEK TO MONOPOLIZE THE DRUG TRADE IN THE UNITED STATES?

I began to pose the rhetorical question: What if the CIA, discouraged by losing ground in the war on drugs, were to begin dealing in drugs itself, as a way of wresting power from the drug cartels and the drug lords?

Overview: Potential Negative Outcomes

Here is what I feel about that …

  • The people of the United States would begin to live in fear of the CIA, just as they now live in fear of the drug cartels and the drug lords.
  • Money from drug sale profits would flow into the CIA coffers first, and from there to other parts of the government. We might anticipate a greater than proportionate share might stay with the CIA, making it a wealthy … perhaps even the wealthiest? … branch of government.
  • The CIA might accrue unto itself so much power, that it would become ‘top-heavy’, setting the balance of the democratic process off-kilter.
  • There would thus arise a chance that our government would move from a democratic process, to fascism, such as that promoted by the Italian National Fascist Party leader Benito Mussolini, who ruled Italy from 1922 to 1943; in 1925 he established a dictatorship there. In our case, it is likely that the head of the CIA would become America’s first dictator.

Putative Use of Released Felons as ‘Soldiers’ and Drug Runner for the CIA: Potential Negative Outcomes

The CIA has unique powers, even now, to coerce local law enforcement to accede to its expectations. As it attempted to gain hegemony over the drug trade in the United States, there might be inroads on America’s legal systems along these lines …

  • The headiness of the profits flowing from the people of the United States, and into the coffers of the CIA, would contradict the mandate of the CIA to educate our children and adults about the evils of drugs.
  • The CIA might employ felons released from our prisons, when their time is up, as strong-arm ‘soldiers’ and drug runners. These might be granted CIA ID cards.
    • Having cards, and having experienced previous lives of crime, they might continue with lives of crime, and evade retribution by law enforcement in our towns and cities through immunity granted them by their CIA ID cards.
    • As released felons are more likely to have HIV than the general population, and are more likely to have a history of child molestation, we could anticipate an increase in the HIV-infected population in towns where they operated.
    • Especially, we could anticipate the children being infected with HIV. As children with HIV are not able to have children, the populations of the towns where the CIA ‘soldiers’ worked might be anticipated to have zero population growth in 25.5 years (that is, in a generation).
  • These felon ‘soldiers’ might attempt to addict virtually all Americans with drugs, possibly through our drinking water, or through bottled water sold in stores, so as to increase the CIA’s customer base.
    • This would result in downtime and a decrease in America’s available man-hours.
    • If our drinking water were poisoned with drugs, then we might have deaths of newborns, toddlers, invalids, and seniors … in other words, of vulnerable parts of our population, because of the poisoned water.

Long-Term Potential Negative Outcomes: Decentralization of Government and Establishment of Drug Warlords Owing Fealty and Tribute to the CIA

Here is a ‘long view’ of the strategy …

  • The chance would arise that small towns across the United States would become like feudal holdings, whose law would be determined by profit rather than law and order.
    • Each of our towns might be ‘captured’, as it were, by local CIA released felon ‘soldiers’. Such ‘captured’ towns might be envisioned to be warlord strongholds, much like those of some despotic African warlords. These feudal holdings would owe fealty and ‘tribute’ to a Central Intelligence Agency on the East Coast.
  • With time, centralization of power on the East Coast would deteriorate, What would remain would be local warlord strongholds, ruled by the released felons. The manner of decentralization might be like the expansion of farming culture from the East Coast of the United States, to the West Coast, only in reverse, like this …
  • Due to the addiction of the population, and the decrease in available manpower because of HIV infection, it would become more difficult for each locality to meet its agricultural supply needs.
    • We might expect, for example, struggles with starvation in lean years.
    • We might anticipate food being held by warlord strongholds, and distributed by them. Granaries are an example of food power accretion in this manner.
    • We might anticipate raids by release felons, living in mountainous areas, upon the flatland communities, with concomitant fighting and bloodshed.
    • We might expect, as food supplies became more scarce, that the population would rely less on drugs, because of their expense, so as to set aside enough food supplies. As this began to happen, then the power of the drug lords might wain, as their wealth dwindled.
      • This might give our towns an opportunity to re-establish democratic process and civil law, through overthrowing the warlords.

ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

As I did not much like my line of inquiry and investigation of the above scenario, I would like to present two alternative strategies, with regard to the war against drugs in America.

A Substitute Plan for the CIA to Garner Money for Our Government by Nationalizing and Administering Tobacco Sales, with Doubled Taxes

As things stand, it is illegal for the CIA to engage in business in America. As mentioned above, the concern is that the resultant monopoly and hegemony would erode our Constitutional liberties and threaten our democratic way of life.

However, if our leadership felt that the situation were such that this law must be contravened, then I would suggest that the CIA begin to sell some commodity other than drugs. One such commodity might be tobacco.

From 2000 to 2010, Americans spend about $100B annually on illegal drugs, including cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine, according to the RAND Drug Policy Research Center for the Office of National Drug Control Policy. This is the most recent figure I have on the market value of illegal drugs in the United States, so I will go with this.

Link: “Americans Spent About A Trillion Dollars On Illegal Drugs In The Last Decade,” by Matt Ferner, 13 March 2014, in Huffington Post … https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/13/americans-trillion-dollars-drugs_n_4943601.html ..

The retail value of 2017 annual tobacco sales in the United States was about $121B …

Link: “Market value of tobacco in the United States from 2013 to 2020 (in million U.S. dollars),” by Jan Conway, 20 February 2020, in Statista: The Statistics Portal” … https://www.statista.com/statistics/491709/tobacco-united-states-market-value/ ..

Looking at these two figures: 2017 annual tobacco sales at $121B, and 2010 estimated annual illegal drug sales at $100 billion, we might consider these to be roughly equal.

Thus the CIA might expect to profit as much from the nationalization of tobacco sales, as it might from sales of recreational drugs, were it to double the tax on tobacco sales.

There would be other upsides to this strategy as well …

  • Like recreational drug use, tobacco use causes health risks. However, I feel that increased use of tobacco might not damage the decision-making ability of people as much as drug use while they are in the workplace. Thus our workforce might more easily maintain its competitive edge in the global economy.
  • As it would have no financial incentive to promote addiction to recreational drugs, the CIA could, without quandary, set aside part of its profits from the sale of tobacco, to educate children and adults on the danger of using drugs, and to offer drug rehab programs. (However, education on the health risks of tobacco might suffer.)
  • There might be less deaths of newborns, toddlers, invalids, and seniors were we to avoid addicting the overall United States population by drugging drinking water (as in the hypothetical instance above)
  • The CIA would not need to use released felons to sell tobacco; they could simply nationalize tobacco sales, and double the tax on them. Instead, released felons might be steered in the direction of employment in less populated areas, such as forestry or fishing. Thus the danger of infecting our schoolchildren with HIV, through use of released felons who may have been infected with HIV in prison, might be mitigated.

A Preferable Alternate Strategy: Legalization and Taxation of Recreational Drugs

I suggest a second alternate strategy, that of legalizing and taxing recreational drugs. I have discussed the benefits of this strategy in a prior blog …

Link: “What Could We Expect in Federal, State and Local Revenue Increases if Recreational Drugs Were Legalized?” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 20 April 2018; updated … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-8yL ..

To recap that article, the primary benefits of the strategy are …

  • $686.2B estimated annual net improvement in the federal bottom line, and
  • $17B estimated annual improvement in the State and local bottom line due to ‘sin tax’ increases

This strategy, then, would bolster the United States economy by providing a good deal of new money for government services, in addition to money for education and rehabilitation in the arena of drug use.

Were it to be implemented along with a strategy of circumventing, insofar as possible, the presence of HIV-infected child molesters in our small towns, the combined strategy would mitigate the timeline of the AIDS pandemic, allowing a slowdown during which an AIDS-resistant American population could develop. This, then, would mitigate manpower diminution in our next generation, about 25 years from now.

This strategy would not require that the CIA contravene its edict to protect the American people’s democratic way of life. Nor would it raise the threat of fascism or dictatorship taking hold in the United States.

Thus the people of American, raised with a healthy regard for the Declaration of Independence and our United States Constitution, might happily continue on, in a restful state of mind, and in what they understandably consider to be their right to pursue personal happiness during their lifetimes.

Consequently, we might confidently anticipate our American economy holding its own in the coming decades, very much in step with the other nations of the world.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars
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