Category Archives: Politics

Bobcats and Human Microchips: End Times or Time of New Beginning? . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 3 September 2020

Image: “Calero Creek Trail Bobcat,” by Don DeBold from San Jose, CA, USA, 1 December 2007, from Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Calero_Creek_Trail_Bobcat.jpg … CC BY-SA 2.0 Generic

Image: “Calero Creek Trail Bobcat,” by Don DeBold from San Jose, CA, USA, 1 December 2007, from Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Calero_Creek_Trail_Bobcat.jpg … CC BY-SA 2.0 Generic

  • BOBCATS AND HUMAN MICROCHIPS: END TIMES OR TIME OF NEW BEGINNING?
  • MORE INFORMATION

Dear Ones,

BOBCATS AND HUMAN MICROCHIPS: END TIMES OR TIME OF NEW BEGINNING?

Yesterday I was walking a new trail in Santa Clarita, California. When I started out there was not a car in the parking lot but my own. I went along until the track became a maze of trails not on the map, and then turned around and came back. Nearly back at the parking lot, I was about to pass an old oak tree, which led to a sort of box canyon, up which the trail wended its way.

As I got close to the oak tree, I startled a bobcat that had been lounging in the shade. I was so in awe of its handsome form and lithe healthiness that I forgot to make a video until it was nearly (and quickly) out of sight.

Just after that I saw my first and only hiker of the day, a Latin American gentleman about my own age. When I told him about the bobcat, he decided to turn back as, unlike me, he had not brought along his hiking staff.

He must have seen the cross I was wearing round my neck for, as we retraced the short rise that led to the parking lot, he spoke to me about his conviction that we are in the time of Apocalypse, the End Times, in which people of faith must face many signs of catastrophe.

He spoke of the Book of Revelation and of its author John. He mentioned a passage in Revelation 13, about the number 666, the ‘number of the beast’ …

11 And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon …

16 And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

I have done some blogs about the Book of Revelation, but not a blog on Chapter 13. My hiking companion mentioned a concern he had that the number 666 (the ‘number of the beast’ and also the ‘number of a man’) felt to him to be the human microchip implants which he had heard might have been forced upon all people in India, and might be in use elsewhere in the world.

Then he mentioned that President Trump was requesting legislation be enacted to implant chips in all Americans. That was pretty upsetting to me, following as it did upon my amazement at sighting a bobcat, and my surprise at encountering a fellow hiker.

In fact, when I thought about it, the conversation of my fellow hiker was the first I had had with anyone at all, at length and in person, since the COVID-19 pandemic hit Los Angeles at the beginning of March 2020. Swiftly I computed that it had been 6 months since I had had a lengthy conversation with anyone at all, in person and within a distance where I could hear their voice on the physical plane.

I realized that people all across the globe are experiencing a kind of inward turning, a lack of social contact, that is causing our minds to come up with novel and often ‘out there’ explanations to encompass and express the novel and hence fear-provoking health concerns that have come upon all the countries of Earth. I did not know what to think about this theory of the sign of the beast and the human microchips.

As we reached the parking lot, though, we both agreed that in these times faith is of the utmost importance; that through faith we can overcome every obstacle of these times, no matter how insurmountable that obstacle may seem. We agreed too that those who align with Christ Consciousness will rise above the troubles of life on Earth, and that now of all times is the time in which this may best be happening to each of us.

The explanation that my hiking companion had about the ‘number of the beast’, President Trump, and human microchip implantation concerned me enough that today I took a look online about it. I was greatly relieved to find that most likely the CHIP associated with President Trump is the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), whose funding is in question.

That funding for CHIP is in question is an issue to which Congress must, I feel, rise. What could be more important to this country than the welfare of our children? It is, I guess, just as important as avoiding legislation to force Americans to have microchip implants. Both are important issues, I feel.

Because people globally are, I feel, carrying a greater than usual burden of anxiety over the state of the world right not, it is possible we may leap to unusual decisions about a number of legislative issues. That is a danger that Americans face right now: How to make wise decisions even though we are under a lot of stress because of the pandemic.

Right now I feel the thing for our legislatures … whether national, state, county or city … to do might be to make legislative decisions that decrease the burden of stress on all Americans. That lessening of the national burden of stress will help us to turn our visions of Apocalypse and End Times into the joyful visions of our Lightworker community: visions of a Second Coming of Christ Consciousness for all those who wish to embrace it; visions of a Time of New Beginning, and of New Life on New Earth for each of us, the New Humans.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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MORE INFORMATION

Search my blog for the term: End Times: Revelation

REVELATION 13 (KJV, Public Domain)

1 And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and ten horns, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.

2 And the beast which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet were as the feet of a bear, and his mouth as the mouth of a lion: and the dragon gave him his power, and his seat, and great authority.

3 And I saw one of his heads as it were wounded to death; and his deadly wound was healed: and all the world wondered after the beast.

4 And they worshipped the dragon which gave power unto the beast: and they worshipped the beast, saying, Who is like unto the beast? who is able to make war with him?

5 And there was given unto him a mouth speaking great things and blasphemies; and power was given unto him to continue forty and two months.

6 And he opened his mouth in blasphemy against God, to blaspheme his name, and his tabernacle, and them that dwell in heaven.

7 And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and power was given him over all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.

8 And all that dwell upon the earth shall worship him, whose names are not written in the book of life of the Lamb slain from the foundation of the world.

9 If any man have an ear, let him hear.

10 He that leadeth into captivity shall go into captivity: he that killeth with the sword must be killed with the sword. Here is the patience and the faith of the saints.

11 And I beheld another beast coming up out of the earth; and he had two horns like a lamb, and he spake as a dragon.

12 And he exerciseth all the power of the first beast before him, and causeth the earth and them which dwell therein to worship the first beast, whose deadly wound was healed.

13 And he doeth great wonders, so that he maketh fire come down from heaven on the earth in the sight of men,

14 And deceiveth them that dwell on the earth by the means of those miracles which he had power to do in the sight of the beast; saying to them that dwell on the earth, that they should make an image to the beast, which had the wound by a sword, and did live.

15 And he had power to give life unto the image of the beast, that the image of the beast should both speak, and cause that as many as would not worship the image of the beast should be killed.

16 And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

17 And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

18 Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

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bobcats, human microchips, CHIP, Donald Trump, hiking, nature, End Times, Apocalypse, politics, cognitive dissonance, anxiety, Time of New Beginning, Second Coming, Christ Consciousness, Children’s Health Insurance Program, Christianity, Bible, Revelation, law, social isolation, COVID-19, coronavirus, community health, countries of Earth, United States,

COVID-19 and the USA: Is the Death Count Higher or Lower Than Expected? . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 8 July 2020

Image: “Scared Girl,” by Victor Bezrukov, 27 January 2007, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Scared_Girl.jpg … CC BY 2.0

Image: “Scared Girl,” by Victor Bezrukov, 27 January 2007, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Scared_Girl.jpg … CC BY 2.0

Dear Ones,

Given the press on the state of COVID-19 in California since the Fourth of July, I checked whether the greater picture for the pandemic in California, and in the United States overall, is grim or reasonable. Here is what I found out …

There is a question whether deaths due to COVID-19 are being misclassified on the high side in the United States currently, similar to the issue they were being misclassified on the low side in March 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are aware of this issue, but cannot yet quantitate it, as there are state-by-state issues regarding standardization of statistical reporting.

Thus it seems reasonable to look at overall deaths in the United States overall, since the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020, and also state-by-state. That way we can ascertain whether overall deaths (including COVID-19, flu, pneumonia, and every other cause of death) are higher or lower than expected.

I turned to the CDC for the data. They say deaths in the United States, from whatever causes, are 4 percent greater than expected deaths for the period from 1 February to 4 July 2020. Ball-parking that, we might reasonably assume deaths from COVID-19 to have contributed most of that excess. That is the approach to the data taken as a given by the press and by all levels of  government in the United States, from city government, to state government, to government at the national level.

On the other hand, it could be that there is a range of numbers within which expected deaths are tallied, Taking that range into account, it is possible, from a multiple year perspective, that COVID-19 may not have contributed at all to this year’s excess deaths. It could be we are on the far end of the expectable range of deaths in 2020, and in the coming years there will be less deaths than expectable. In other words, excess expectable deaths this year might not be due to COVID-19 at all. That is the contrarian approach to the data.

From the stance of personal health and safety, it might be good to know which states have the highest numbers of deaths greater than expected since February of this year. We could take a look at deaths due to COVID or whatever other causes; that would be a figure beyond debate.

I see from the below chart that some states have had a notably higher percent of expected deaths than the United States in general, during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are Arizona (108%), Colorado (109%), District of Columbia (115%), Illinois (115%), Louisiana (107%), Maryland (116%), Massachusetts (123%), Michigan (112%), Minnesota (105%),  New Jersey (142%), New York (124%), New York City (203%), and Rhode Island (106%).

From this list the standouts in terms of having deaths greater than expected, from highest to lowest, are New York City (203%), New Jersey (142%), New York (124%), Massachusetts (123%), Maryland (116%), District of Columbia (115%), Illinois (115%), and Michigan (112%).

This table has the data in it …

Image: “United States Deaths from 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 as Percent of Expected Deaths, State by State,” from Link: “Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm … See: Table 2. Deaths Involving Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Pneumonia, and Influenza Reported to NCHS by Jurisdiction of Occurrence, United States, Week Ending 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 … public domain.

Image: “United States Deaths from 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 as Percent of Expected Deaths, State by State,” from Link: “Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm … See: Table 2. Deaths Involving Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Pneumonia, and Influenza Reported to NCHS by Jurisdiction of Occurrence, United States, Week Ending 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 … public domain.

In case the chart is too small to read, the data can be found here …

Link: “Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm … See: Table 2. Deaths Involving Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Pneumonia, and Influenza Reported to NCHS by Jurisdiction of Occurrence, United States, Week Ending 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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COVID-19, coronavirus, community health, health, United States, California, government, politics, common good,

The George Floyd ‘Flashpoint’ and Scapegoating of Police in America . by Alice B. Clagett *

Written and published on 4 June 2020

  • COVID AND SUBCONSCIOUS SYMBOLISM: “I CAN’T BREATHE”
  • TRIPLE ECLIPSE PASSAGE

Dear Ones,

COVID AND SUBCONSCIOUS SYMBOLISM: “I CAN’T BREATHE”

I wonder if when George Floyd so poignantly said “I can’t breathe” and then passed on, whether that sent a message to us that face masks make it hard to breathe … that COVID also, they say, makes it hard to breathe … and somehow these two, the face masks and the COVID symptoms … are what are being protested, both at the same time, along with undue force by the policeman.

It seems almost as if the suffocation of George Floyd was the acting out in physical reality of our concerns about the pandemic, the concrete symbol of our fears. And now, after the ‘flashpoint’ event that occurred, it is almost as if the police are being pilloried as scapegoats … that our fears for our well-being have morphed into anger at them.

In recent weeks I have been doing an easy yoga set in addition to walking (which I love), and found these help quite a bit to divert my heart from the dramas so much in the news.

TRIPLE ECLIPSE PASSAGE

It seems likely to me that the events unfolding in the social arena have to do with the high energies of the Triple Eclipse Passage now underway …

Link: “Incoming Light! Triple Eclipse Passage,” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 4 June 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-iuS ..

That passage heralds the New. Transforming to the New always requires courage, and overcoming one’s own desire to remain the same. Fear and anger do arise in our hearts, and we must counter these with positive emotions and right action in the world. That way we can become more like Christ, more like the Buddha, and more like Lord Krishna in our hearts and in the living of our lives.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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health, COVID-19, coronavirus, face masks, civil unrest, community alerts, psychology, psychiatry, fear, fight or flight, anxiety, freeze-fawn response, panic attacks, acting out, George Floyd, current affairs, scapegoats, psychological projection, community health, government, common good, politics, social unrest, emotions, fear, anger, human affairs, social issues, yoga, grounding, Christ consciousness, galactic body, Lord Krishna, Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, almanac, Lightworkers, New Human, New Earth, courage, faith, United States, Countries of Earth, transformation, incoming light, letting go, symbolism, subconscious symbolism, triple eclipse passage, solar events, Summer Solstice 2020, my favorites, miscellanea, law enforcement,

Western States Pact and Possible Decentralization of the United States . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 2 June 2020

  • FORMATION OF THE WESTERN STATES PACT
  • POSSIBLE DECENTRALIZATION OF THE UNITED STATES INTO LOOSELY FEDERALLY RULED ECONOMIC REGIONS IN YEARS TO COME
    • Decentralization Stressors
      • COVID-19, AIDS, and Less Federal Revenues
      • The Price of Water and the Potential Need to Grow Crops
  • COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS VERSUS THE COMMON GOOD

Dear Ones,

FORMATION OF THE WESTERN STATES PACT

As you may know, a Western States Pact has been formed in response to the COVID-19 issue. To date, the states involved are Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, and Nevada …

Link: “Colorado & Nevada Join California, Oregon & Washington in Western States Pact,” 27 April 2020 … https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/04/27/colorado-nevada-join-california-oregon-washington-in-western-states-pact/ ..

This is a power block or united front asking for financial help from the federal government in response to the impact of COVID-19 on their states’ economies.

POSSIBLE DECENTRALIZATION OF THE UNITED STATES INTO LOOSELY FEDERALLY RULED ECONOMIC REGIONS IN YEARS TO COME

While this power block has a focused purpose, it does present a small step towards consolidating a Western economic region, in a way that is reminiscent of this possible timeline for relative decentralization of the United States into economic regions, with less control by a federal government as a possibility in years to come …

Link: “What If: Will the United States Become Less Centralized?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 6 December 2019 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-fnm ..

Decentralization Stressors

COVID-19, AIDS, and Less Federal Revenues. Among the stressors, in the current scenario, would be COVID-19 affecting the current economy of the large United States cities; AIDS (which prevents having viable offspring) affecting the Eastern Seaboard economic region (which is hard hit by AIDS) first, and other regions later; and in the short term, inability of the federal government to provide financial aid because of decreased tax payments next year because of unemployment caused by lockdowns this year.

The Price of Water and the Potential Need to Grow Crops. In addition, here in Los Angeles the price of water has made it untenable to raise crops; water prices may rise elsewhere in the United States as well. For those in the cities, I suggest a power block lobbying for reasonably priced water. For those who can move away from the cities, I suggest moving to regions of plentiful rainfall, so that a sustainable or survival-oriented lifestyle can be maintained if necessary.

COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS VERSUS THE COMMON GOOD

My feeling is that riots and curfews are happening in New York, Los Angeles and elsewhere because people who have no savings have been prevented from making a living by lockdowns in the urban areas of the United States. My hope is that our mayors and governors will see the wisdom of balancing relatively few lives lost through COVID-19 against social unrest caused by inability to get work.

Italy, for instance, was very hard hit by the epidemic, yet their people are going back to work and reopening churches. In addition, Dallas, Texas is doing so. From available news, the resurgence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, which reopened for business a while ago, has been far less in numbers than the good caused by the ability of the people to feed and clothe themselves.

In other words, I feel that, in terms of lockdown or return to normalcy, we must weigh the common good against our fears regarding possible, but as yet unproven, negative outcomes. For all we know, the worst is over, and better days lie just beyond the horizon, nearly within our ken.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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government, economics, social unrest, United States, California, Wild West, COVID-19, health, community health, politics, taxes, common good, economy, Cities of Earth, countries of Earth, Los Angeles, New York, fear, Italy, emotions, lockdown, Texas, employment, water, agriculture,

Danger for Hikers and Campers in Ventura County? . by Alice B. Clagett

Excerpted on 28 May 2020 from a blog published on 29 September 2019

  • DANGER FOR HIKERS AND CAMPERS IN RURAL VENTURA COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY?
  • NEED FOR INTER-COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT LIAISONS AMONGST COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE CITY OF LOS ANGELES

Dear Ones,

DANGER FOR HIKERS AND CAMPERS IN RURAL VENTURA COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY?

In the last few years, I have clairly listened to several astral stories while exploring the byroads and hiking trails of Ventura County north of Ojai and of Los Angeles County north of Santa Clarita. What intuition very strongly tells me is that those of us who hike and camp in rural areas of Ventura County and Los Angeles Cunty are in danger of thefts from our parked vehicles (including theft of electronics, personal items, and tires); theft of the vehicles themselves; burglary of equipment from our tents; and apparently possible violent loss of our lives so that thieves may market our stolen goods and cars without being caught out.

I feel what intuition tells me is greatly increased danger in this regard may have to do with higher water costs for Ventura County and Los Angeles County rural residents, the need for food and firewood for their homes, and the need for feed and water for their livestock. It seems to me reasonable, if these crimes are occurring, to try to find out if local Ventura County and Los Angeles County residents have a hand in it.

NEED FOR INTER-COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT LIAISONS AMONGST COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE CITY OF LOS ANGELES

It is possible that, because of increasing economic stresses in California, residents of small towns and of rural areas … including their law enforcement agencies … may be beginning to band together to protect themselves from outsiders, and to profit by occasional raids on tourists and visitors such as I describe above.

I ask that law enforcement for counties adjacent to the City of Los Angeles reach out, each to the other, so as to form as close bonds of cooperation and information exchange as possible. In that way, we can keep Southern California strong and safe for everyone.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

The above concerns are derived from intuition and clair perception; they cannot be said to be factual in any regard unless facts are found that support the ‘astral intel’.

Excerpted from Link: “The Ghouls of Sere Vale,” an Astral Story by Alice B. Clagett, filmed on 28 August 2019; published on 29 September 2019; revised on 22 June 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-ejX ..

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law enforcement, Ventura County, California, astral stories, Los Angeles, economy, travel in the United States, hiking, camping, crime, crime prevention, theft, burglary, vehicular theft, cities of Earth, countries of Earth, government, sedition, treason, common good, social unrest, community alerts,

The Human Heart, Aligned with That of God, Unveils Great Mysteries . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 28 December 2019
Previously titled: A Thought for the New Year

  • THE HUMAN HEART, ALIGNED WITH THAT OF GOD, UNVEILS GREAT MYSTERIES

Dear Ones,

I found a note in my hand in my well-worn copy of the book “How to Know God: The Yoga Aphorisms of Patanjali” and was inspired to write this message for my star kindred here on Earth. The occasion is New Years Day 2020 …

THE HUMAN HEART, ALIGNED WITH THAT OF GOD, UNVEILS GREAT MYSTERIES

It is the error of men to try to control the world … and the error of women to try to save it. In truth, there is no world beyond our sphere of influence … no world beyond us, against which we struggle in vain. Our realm of endeavor … our purpose of attaining human form … lies right within us.

May I master my wayward mind through contemplation of my heart, as Patanjali advises …

Citation: “How to Know God: The Yoga Aphorisms of Patanjali,” translated with a commentary by Swami Prabhavananda and Christopher Isherwood, copyright 1953, 1981 by The Vedanta Society of Southern California … See page 187;  the chapter “III. Powers,” number 35, which states (to paraphrase) that it is through contemplation of the heart that we master our own minds.

May I learn to control, not the world … not the ways of power, nor the ephemeral billboard of worldly fame, nor the intricate Dark web of political intrigue … but rather to control myself. May seek to I save myself, through God’s grace.

May I humbly seek to align my heart with the Great Heart of God which, beating and pulsing through the pathways between the stars … those byways of the Angel Realm … informs and enlivens all beings everywhere … from the tiniest cosmic ray to the greatest star; from the humblest mineral form to the most sentient of beings; and in our earthly realm, from the poorest and most desperate of humankind to the popes and presidents of countries and of international conglomerates.

Who knows but what the well tuned heart might sing the song of God’s mighty Universe; and, taking Archangel Michael by the hand, traverse with him the farthest reaches of His great creation! So may each of us, I pray, walk with utmost reverence the great interstellar paths, and come to know, in the truest sense, that we humankind are children of the stars.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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Patanjali, starseed, star beings, Angelic Realm, Archangel Michael, universe, aligning with God, mastery of mind, self-sacrifice, fourth chakra, heart chakra, advaita, power over, theosophy, enlightenment, self-control, politics, government, corporations, religion, mysticism,

Community Health: The Misleading Nature of CDC Reports on the HIV / AIDS Crisis in America . by Alice B. Clagett *

Written and published on 4 November 2019

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UPDATE as of 28 April 2021

It looks to me like the prevalences (aka ‘risk’) below should have been per 100,000 people. That would make the statistics far lower. I say that because of this recent article …

Link: “Estimated HIV Incidence and Prevalence in the United States 2014-2018 pdf icon[PDF – 3 MB].” HIV Surveillance Supplemental Report 2020; 25(1) … https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/pdf/library/reports/surveillance/cdc-hiv-surveillance-supplemental-report-vol-25-1.pdf ..

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  • MISLEADING NATURE OF CDC HIV DATA
  • ‘INCIDENCE’ of HIV / AIDS
  • ‘PREVALENCE’ or ‘LIFETIME RISK’ of HIV / AIDS
    • How Family Wealth Planning for Future Generations Is Affected by HIV Prevalence
    • How May We Instill Hope in Our Families, Even Though They May Have HIV?
      • Careers Despite HIV
      • Continuing to Work Despite Blindness
  • RECENT CDC FIGURES ON HIV LIFETIME RISK
    • Table 1. Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis, by Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Risk Group, United States
      • Gender Inequality in Testing for HIV – AIDS
      • Lifetime Risk for Black Men Who Have Sex with Men
    • Table 2. Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis, by State, United States
      • Great Disparity in Lifetime Risk, State by State
      • Possible Underreporting of Risk by States for Economic Reasons
      • Risk in Large Cities
    • Table 3. 10-Year Age-Conditional Risk (1 in n) of HIV Diagnosis Among HIV-Free Males and Females, Aged 20-50 Years, United States
      • Young Men Who Have Sex with Men Are at Greater Risk of New HIV Diagnosis
      • New HIV Diagnosis Risk for Young Men Who Have Sex with Men Varies Greatly by Race / Ethnicity
      • New HIV Diagnosis Risk for People Who Inject Drugs is Much Less Than for Men Who Have Sex with Men
      • New HIV Diagnosis Risk for Young Women Who Inject Drugs Is Twice as Great as for Young Men
      • Can We Extrapolate That HIV Diagnosis Risk for Young Women is Twice as Great as That for Young Men?
      • Importance of Gender Equality in HIV / AIDS Testing of Young People

Dear Ones,

MISLEADING NATURE OF CDC HIV DATA

Over the years I have written quite a few blogs on the HIV / AIDS global pandemic. Chicken that I am, I feel I have failed to convey my feeling that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is releasing data about the pandemic that greatly misrepresent the difficulties that lie before us as a nation. Perhaps this misrepresentation is intentional; perhaps it is political in nature … and perhaps not. Who can say?

The crux of the matter is that the data the CDC typically presents to the public have to do with disease ‘incidence’ rather than disease ‘prevalence’ or ‘lifetime risk’.

‘INCIDENCE’ of HIV / AIDS

As I understand it, disease ‘incidence’ has to do with how many new cases will be diagnosed next year, or the following year. These data are important to medical doctors, so that they can have sufficient medications on hand for the coming year.

‘PREVALENCE’ or ‘LIFETIME RISK’ of HIV / AIDS

‘Prevalence’, or ‘lifetime risk’ offers data on the likelihood that we and our families will contract HIV / AIDS during our lifetime. These are the data that I feel are hard to find in the CDC documents. Yet these are the data that help us plan for our families’ future.

How Family Wealth Planning for Future Generations Is Affected by HIV Prevalence

For instance, if our children, according to ‘lifetime risk’ data, are likely to contract HIV / AIDS in their lifetime, then we might ask: At what age are they likely to contract the disease?

If they contract it in early childhood, from what I have read, it is apparently likely they will die from it at a young age.

If they contract the disease at about the age of puberty, from what I have read, it is likely they will be unable to bear offspring that live more than a few years.

If our children contract the disease while their children are young, then apparently the risk is high that their young children will contract the disease from their parents through suckling milk, or transmission of bodily fluids while the family has bouts of cold or flu, or through childhood play.

Whether or not our children will contract the disease before they bear children is, I feel, very important to each family’s planning for the future. If there are no grandchildren, then that will make a big difference in the wealth that must be set aside for future generations. In addition, health care costs and the economic impact of sick leave downtime for our infected children and grandchildren is a wealth planning consideration.

How May We Instill Hope in Our Families, Even Though They May Have HIV?

If the lifetime risk of contracting HIV / AIDS is high, either because of lifestyle choices, or because of race or ethnicity, or because of the city or state or region of the United States in which we live, then now would be the time to plan with our children and grandchildren for a future that may involve infection.

Our families need to have some hope to live for, even though they may be infected.

I will say that, in my opinion, the CDC does a great job of glossing over the downside, and providing the upside of life with HIV / AIDS. So families can go to their site to learn that life with HIV is no big deal in the United States, any more.

By that is meant, I feel, that for those who are able to tolerate the drug regimens that have been developed, the prospect of a long and productive life is good. And that is something that might offer hope to our children: They may find that they, or their friends, contract the disease.

Careers Despite HIV. Maybe they may not be able to have families of their own, but they can look forward to fulfilling careers, and maybe good health for quite a long time.

Continuing to Work Despite Blindness. I note that, as of 2001 10-20% of people worldwide who had AIDS were becoming blind in one or both eyes …

Link: “HIV / AIDS and Blindness,” by P. G. Kestelyn and E. T. Cunningham, Jr, Bull World Health Organ 2001, 79(3), 208-213 … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2566369/ ..

Thus, as a nation, we must retool as many industries as possible so that our eyesight-impaired HIV-positive children can continue on with their careers even should they have low vision.
RECENT CDC FIGURES ON HIV LIFETIME RISK

Today I found a pretty good pdf file offered by the CDC, that presents lifetime risk and also age-conditional risk by race and ethnicity, gender, and state. The data are from 2009-2013 …

Link: “Lifetime Risk of a Diagnosis of HIV Infection in the United States,” by Kristen L. Hess, PhD, MPH, Xiaohong Hu, MS, Amy Lansky, PhD, MPH, Jonathan Mermin, MD, and H. Irene Hall, PhD, MPH, HHS Public Access Author Manuscript, Ann. Epidemiol. published in final edited form as: Ann Epidemiol. 2017 April ; 27(4): 238-243, doi:10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.02.003 … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5524204/ ..

By clicking on the above pdf link you can download the document to your computer.

Of special note are the three tables at the end of the document.

Table 1. Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis, by Sex, Race/Ethnicity, and Risk Group, United States

Gender Inequality in Testing for HIV / AIDS. I note the total lifetime risk for men is 1 in 68 people, and for women 1 in 253 people. I believe this has to do with gender inequality in testing for HIV / AIDS. I feel the perception in the medical community is that MSM men are at risk for HIV / AIDS, and so, I feel, doctors are more likely to test men than women.

As I have mentioned priorly, it could be that bisexual men who are dating or married to women and raising families are also at risk, and that their wives and families are at risk and fail to test for HIV – AIDS because they are uninformed about their boyfriends’ or husbands’ exposure to risk.

I would like to see equal gender testing for HIV / AIDS, especially among couples with children where the boyfriend or husband tests positive for HIV. Then the medical community might, a few years from now, reassess the total lifetime risk for women.

Lifetime Risk for Black Men Who Have Sex with Men. I note the lifetime risk of contracting HIV / AIDS is 1 in 2 men. The overall lifetime risk for men who have sex with men is 1 in 6 men. From this I feel that women who want to have families ought to ascertain, before becoming pregnant, whether the prospective fathers in fact prefer to have sex with men. I feel that societal expectations, especially amongst Christians, make it especially difficult for Christian men to disclose this bias to prospective wives.

Given this, I feel all women hoping to have children ask those men they want to be intimate with for HIV test results, keeping in mind that chastity for one month after the last sexual contact is necessary before tests such as Oraquick can provide relatively accurate results. The last I read in the fine print of the Oraquick package was that there was a 10 percent error in this type of saliva test.  HIV blood tests, while more expensive, are a good deal more accurate; they are the best the medical community can offer presently.

Table 2. Lifetime Risk of HIV Diagnosis, by State, United States

From this table, I note a big range of risks, state by state, and in the District of Columbia.

Great Disparity in Lifetime Risk, State by State. For instance, the lifetime risk in Maryland is 1 in 56 people. But the risk in Montana is 1 in 674 people. The other states are in between these two extremes, with Georgia and Florida on the very risky side, and Idaho and North Dakota on the ‘unrisky’ side.

The first thought along these lines, for families who are concerned about HIV infection, might be (and I agree it seems logical) to relocate to a state that has less lifetime risk of infection.

Possible Underreporting of Risk by States for Economic Reasons. Amongst the states, I feel it likely that there may be HIV / AIDS ‘underreporting’, and that this may have to do with the tourist trade, or perceived need to attract new business to one’s home state. If this is true, I hope lifetime risk reporting will become more accurate in the next few years, as our states owe it to their residents to offer accurate figures, so that families can take steps for disease prevention and health care.

Risk in Large Cities. I note the lifetime risk of HIV / AIDS is 1 in 17 people in the District of Columbia, which is the heart of one of our large metropolitan areas. In past blogs, I have asked for a breakdown of lifetime risk for our large cities, as the very high risk in the District of Columbia may in fact indicate high risk in other large United States cities as well.

Table 3. 10-Year Age-Conditional Risk (1 in n) of HIV Diagnosis Among HIV-Free Males and Females, Aged 20-50 Years, United States

Young Men Who Have Sex with Men Are at Greater Risk of New HIV Diagnosis. From these data I see that overall, it is four times more likely that men who have sex with men, and who are 20 years of age will get a new diagnosis of HIV than will men who have sex with men, and who are 50 years of age.

New HIV Diagnosis Risk for Young Men Who Have Sex with Men Varies Greatly by Race / Ethnicity. For black men who have sex with men, the risk of new diagnosis of HIV is 1 in 4 at age 20 and 1 in 26 at age 50. For Hispanic men who have sex with men, the figures are 1 in 13 at age 20, and 1 in 40 at age 50. For White men who have sex with men, the figures are 1 in 39 at age 20 and 1 in 79 at age 50.

New HIV Diagnosis Risk for People Who Inject Drugs is Much Less Than for Men Who Have Sex with Men. Also, I see that people who inject drugs and are 20 years of age are somewhat less likely to get a new diagnosis of HIV than people who are 50 years of age; and that the overall new diagnosis risk for people who inject drugs is, across the age spectrum, very much less than for men who have sex with men.

New HIV Diagnosis Risk for Young Women Who Inject Drugs Is Twice as Great as for Young Men. Overall, for men who inject drugs the new diagnosis risk is 1 in 220 at age 20, and 1 in 167 at age 50. For women who inject drugs the new diagnosis risk is 1 in 108 at age 20 and 1 in 112 at age 50. That would mean that amongst people who inject drugs, women 20 years of age are about twice as likely to get a new HIV diagnosis as are men that age.

Can We Extrapolate That HIV Diagnosis Risk for Young Women is Twice as Great as That for Young Men? As both men and women who inject drugs know they are at risk, it seems to me fair to assume they are testing for HIV in a gender equal way. Thus the figures for new diagnosis risk for men and women who inject drugs might help provide an answer regarding the true new diagnosis risk for women who fail to test because they do not know their boyfriends or husbands are having sex with men.

We might go with the assumption that women who are dating or married to men who have sex with men have twice as much risk of new HIV diagnosis as the men. Amongst 20-year-old men having sex with men the new diagnosis risk is 1 in 15. Projecting from the drug injection risk, 20-year-old women who have sex with men who also have sex with men might be expected to have a new diagnosis risk of 1 in 8 (twice as risky as for the men).

I arrive at this estimate by creating a similar ratio, like this …

  • New diagnosis risk at 20 for men versus women who inject drugs = 1/220 for men versus 1 in 109 for women (about twice as risky for women)
  • Extrapolating new diagnosis risk at 20 for men versus women in relationships where the man has sex with men = 1 in 15 for men versus 1 in 8 (about twice as risky) for women

Importance of Gender Equality in HIV / AIDS Testing of Young People. The above estimate highlights how important gender equality in HIV / AIDS testing may be right now, as regards testing for young women.

From the above estimate we might also extrapolate the number of men who are not disclosing their bisexual lifestyle. If in fact it proves true that twice as many young women as young men, overall, are getting new HIV diagnoses, then it seems to me possible that as many as half of American men are engaging in sex with men as well as with their female sexual partners and wives.

What otherwise would account for young women having a higher incidence of new diagnoses than young men? I have read online that many young women have sex with two men by about age 20. If one of these two had HIV, and gave it to the young woman, then her new male partner would be at risk of infection as well. If this were to be so, then the risk for young women might be from young men who also have sex with men. And the risk for young men might be from having sex with either young men who have sex with men, or from having sex with young women who have done so. Do you not feel this to be true?

If so, then the feat that lies before the medical profession would be to find the most effective way of gathering information from young HIV positive men regarding their female sexual partners, and of persuading the men to allow their female sexual partners to test.

Blessings to all,

In love, light and joy,
Alice B. Clagett
I Am of the Stars

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