Tag Archives: state and local revenues

Would It Be Good If the CIA Took Over the Drug Trade in the United States? . by Alice B. Clagett *

Written and published on 24 April 2018

  • CONSPIRACY THEORY ALLEGATIONS OF CIA DRUG TRADING IN DECADES PAST
  • THE DEFEAT OF THE WAR ON DRUGS?
  • RHETORICAL QUESTION: WHAT IF THE CIA WERE TO SEEK TO MONOPOLIZE THE DRUG TRADE IN THE UNITED STATES?
    • Overview: Potential Negative Outcomes
    • Putative Use of Released Felons as ‘Soldiers’ and Drug Runner for the CIA: Potential Negative Outcomes
    • Long-Term Potential Negative Outcomes: Decentralization of Government and Establishment of Drug Warlords Owing Fealty and Tribute to the CIA
  • ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
    • A Substitute Plan for the CIA to Garner Money for Our Government by Nationalizing and Administering Tobacco Sales, with Doubled Taxes
    • A Preferable Alternate Strategy: Legalization and Taxation of Recreational Drugs

Dear Ones,

This blog is mostly a ‘what if’ based on ruminations about ‘psy in the sky’ regarding the CIA and the drug trade in America. It presents various putative scenarios, along with putative negative and positive outcomes …

CONSPIRACY THEORY ALLEGATIONS OF CIA DRUG TRADING IN DECADES PAST

I was reading an article in Wikipedia about allegations of CIA drug trading in decades past …

Link: “Allegations of CIA drug trafficking,” in Wikipedia …  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_CIA_drug_trafficking ..

THE DEFEAT OF THE WAR ON DRUGS?

I have heard, here and there, that the United States is ‘losing the war on drugs’, at least in terms of the current fight strategy. For instance, here is an article from Stanford University on the topic …

Link: “The United States War on Drugs – Stanford University” …  https://web.stanford.edu/class/e297c/poverty_prejudice/paradox/htele.html ..

RHETORICAL QUESTION: WHAT IF THE CIA WERE TO SEEK TO MONOPOLIZE THE DRUG TRADE IN THE UNITED STATES?

I began to pose the rhetorical question: What if the CIA, discouraged by losing ground in the war on drugs, were to begin dealing in drugs itself, as a way of wresting power from the drug cartels and the drug lords?

Overview: Potential Negative Outcomes

Here is what I feel about that …

  • The people of the United States would begin to live in fear of the CIA, just as they now live in fear of the drug cartels and the drug lords.
  • Money from drug sale profits would flow into the CIA coffers first, and from there to other parts of the government. We might anticipate a greater than proportionate share might stay with the CIA, making it a wealthy … perhaps even the wealthiest? … branch of government.
  • The CIA might accrue unto itself so much power, that it would become ‘top-heavy’, setting the balance of the democratic process off-kilter.
  • There would thus arise a chance that our government would move from a democratic process, to fascism, such as that promoted by the Italian National Fascist Party leader Benito Mussolini, who ruled Italy from 1922 to 1943; in 1925 he established a dictatorship there. In our case, it is likely that the head of the CIA would become America’s first dictator.

Putative Use of Released Felons as ‘Soldiers’ and Drug Runner for the CIA: Potential Negative Outcomes

The CIA has unique powers, even now, to coerce local law enforcement to accede to its expectations. As it attempted to gain hegemony over the drug trade in the United States, there might be inroads on America’s legal systems along these lines …

  • The headiness of the profits flowing from the people of the United States, and into the coffers of the CIA, would contradict the mandate of the CIA to educate our children and adults about the evils of drugs.
  • The CIA might employ felons released from our prisons, when their time is up, as strong-arm ‘soldiers’ and drug runners. These might be granted CIA ID cards.
    • Having cards, and having experienced previous lives of crime, they might continue with lives of crime, and evade retribution by law enforcement in our towns and cities through immunity granted them by their CIA ID cards.
    • As released felons are more likely to have HIV than the general population, and are more likely to have a history of child molestation, we could anticipate an increase in the HIV-infected population in towns where they operated.
    • Especially, we could anticipate the children being infected with HIV. As children with HIV are not able to have children, the populations of the towns where the CIA ‘soldiers’ worked might be anticipated to have zero population growth in 25.5 years (that is, in a generation).
  • These felon ‘soldiers’ might attempt to addict virtually all Americans with drugs, possibly through our drinking water, or through bottled water sold in stores, so as to increase the CIA’s customer base.
    • This would result in downtime and a decrease in America’s available man-hours.
    • If our drinking water were poisoned with drugs, then we might have deaths of newborns, toddlers, invalids, and seniors … in other words, of vulnerable parts of our population, because of the poisoned water.

Long-Term Potential Negative Outcomes: Decentralization of Government and Establishment of Drug Warlords Owing Fealty and Tribute to the CIA

Here is a ‘long view’ of the strategy …

  • The chance would arise that small towns across the United States would become like feudal holdings, whose law would be determined by profit rather than law and order.
    • Each of our towns might be ‘captured’, as it were, by local CIA released felon ‘soldiers’. Such ‘captured’ towns might be envisioned to be warlord strongholds, much like those of some despotic African warlords. These feudal holdings would owe fealty and ‘tribute’ to a Central Intelligence Agency on the East Coast.
  • With time, centralization of power on the East Coast would deteriorate, What would remain would be local warlord strongholds, ruled by the released felons. The manner of decentralization might be like the expansion of farming culture from the East Coast of the United States, to the West Coast, only in reverse, like this …
  • Due to the addiction of the population, and the decrease in available manpower because of HIV infection, it would become more difficult for each locality to meet its agricultural supply needs.
    • We might expect, for example, struggles with starvation in lean years.
    • We might anticipate food being held by warlord strongholds, and distributed by them. Granaries are an example of food power accretion in this manner.
    • We might anticipate raids by release felons, living in mountainous areas, upon the flatland communities, with concomitant fighting and bloodshed.
    • We might expect, as food supplies became more scarce, that the population would rely less on drugs, because of their expense, so as to set aside enough food supplies. As this began to happen, then the power of the drug lords might wain, as their wealth dwindled.
      • This might give our towns an opportunity to re-establish democratic process and civil law, through overthrowing the warlords.

ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

As I did not much like my line of inquiry and investigation of the above scenario, I would like to present two alternative strategies, with regard to the war against drugs in America.

A Substitute Plan for the CIA to Garner Money for Our Government by Nationalizing and Administering Tobacco Sales, with Doubled Taxes

As things stand, it is illegal for the CIA to engage in business in America. As mentioned above, the concern is that the resultant monopoly and hegemony would erode our Constitutional liberties and threaten our democratic way of life.

However, if our leadership felt that the situation were such that this law must be contravened, then I would suggest that the CIA begin to sell some commodity other than drugs. One such commodity might be tobacco.

From 2000 to 2010, Americans spend about $100B annually on illegal drugs, including cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine, according to the RAND Drug Policy Research Center for the Office of National Drug Control Policy. This is the most recent figure I have on the market value of illegal drugs in the United States, so I will go with this.

Link: “Americans Spent About A Trillion Dollars On Illegal Drugs In The Last Decade,” by Matt Ferner, 13 March 2014, in Huffington Post … https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/13/americans-trillion-dollars-drugs_n_4943601.html ..

The retail value of 2017 annual tobacco sales in the United States was about $121B …

Link: “Market value of tobacco in the United States from 2013 to 2020 (in million U.S. dollars),” by Jan Conway, 20 February 2020, in Statista: The Statistics Portal” … https://www.statista.com/statistics/491709/tobacco-united-states-market-value/ ..

Looking at these two figures: 2017 annual tobacco sales at $121B, and 2010 estimated annual illegal drug sales at $100 billion, we might consider these to be roughly equal.

Thus the CIA might expect to profit as much from the nationalization of tobacco sales, as it might from sales of recreational drugs, were it to double the tax on tobacco sales.

There would be other upsides to this strategy as well …

  • Like recreational drug use, tobacco use causes health risks. However, I feel that increased use of tobacco might not damage the decision-making ability of people as much as drug use while they are in the workplace. Thus our workforce might more easily maintain its competitive edge in the global economy.
  • As it would have no financial incentive to promote addiction to recreational drugs, the CIA could, without quandary, set aside part of its profits from the sale of tobacco, to educate children and adults on the danger of using drugs, and to offer drug rehab programs. (However, education on the health risks of tobacco might suffer.)
  • There might be less deaths of newborns, toddlers, invalids, and seniors were we to avoid addicting the overall United States population by drugging drinking water (as in the hypothetical instance above)
  • The CIA would not need to use released felons to sell tobacco; they could simply nationalize tobacco sales, and double the tax on them. Instead, released felons might be steered in the direction of employment in less populated areas, such as forestry or fishing. Thus the danger of infecting our schoolchildren with HIV, through use of released felons who may have been infected with HIV in prison, might be mitigated.

A Preferable Alternate Strategy: Legalization and Taxation of Recreational Drugs

I suggest a second alternate strategy, that of legalizing and taxing recreational drugs. I have discussed the benefits of this strategy in a prior blog …

Link: “What Could We Expect in Federal, State and Local Revenue Increases if Recreational Drugs Were Legalized?” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 20 April 2018; updated … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-8yL ..

To recap that article, the primary benefits of the strategy are …

  • $686.2B estimated annual net improvement in the federal bottom line, and
  • $17B estimated annual improvement in the State and local bottom line due to ‘sin tax’ increases

This strategy, then, would bolster the United States economy by providing a good deal of new money for government services, in addition to money for education and rehabilitation in the arena of drug use.

Were it to be implemented along with a strategy of circumventing, insofar as possible, the presence of HIV-infected child molesters in our small towns, the combined strategy would mitigate the timeline of the AIDS pandemic, allowing a slowdown during which an AIDS-resistant American population could develop. This, then, would mitigate manpower diminution in our next generation, about 25 years from now.

This strategy would not require that the CIA contravene its edict to protect the American people’s democratic way of life. Nor would it raise the threat of fascism or dictatorship taking hold in the United States.

Thus the people of American, raised with a healthy regard for the Declaration of Independence and our United States Constitution, might happily continue on, in a restful state of mind, and in what they understandably consider to be their right to pursue personal happiness during their lifetimes.

Consequently, we might confidently anticipate our American economy holding its own in the coming decades, very much in step with the other nations of the world.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars
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What Could We Expect in Federal, State and Local Revenue Increases if Recreational Drugs Were Legalized? . by Alice B. Clagett *

Published on 20 April 2018; updated

  • $27.8B FEDERAL DRUG CONTROL ANNUAL EXPENSE
  • $132B ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCREASE IN TAX REVENUES FROM NATIONWIDE LEGALIZATION OF MARIJUANA
  • $708.6B ESTIMATED INCREASE IN TAX REVENUES FROM NATIONWIDE LEGALIZATION OF ALL RECREATIONAL DRUGS
  • $686.2B ESTIMATED ANNUAL NET IMPROVEMENT IN THE FEDERAL BOTTOM LINE
  • $17B ESTIMATED ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE STATE AND LOCAL BOTTOM LINE DUE TO ‘SIN TAX’ INCREASES
  • FEDERAL LEGISLATION THAT MIGHT GET AROUND THE MORAL ISSUE STATES HAVE WITH LEGALIZATION OF DRUGS
  • MORE INFORMATION

Dear Ones,

$27.8B FEDERAL DRUG CONTROL ANNUAL EXPENSE

According to Forbes, the war on drugs costs the United States over $78 billion a year

Link: “Doc Series ‘The Trade’: The War On Drugs Costs The U.S. Over $78B A Year,” by Dana Feldman, contributor, in Forbes, 9 February 2018 …  https://www.forbes.com/sites/danafeldman/2018/02/09/doc-series-the-trade-the-war-on-drugs-costs-the-u-s-over-78b-a-year/#3076314a2c1b .. 

However, this includes addiction treatment, healthcare, and lost job productivity in addition to federal drug control expense. As it is the federal drug control expense that would be curtailed by legalization, I looked that up. The federal drug control expense for 2018 is estimated to be $27.8 billion dollars … That would mean the other costs … addiction treatment, healthcare, and lost job productivity … tally about $50.2 billion dollars a year.

Link: “Total federal drug control spending in the United States from FY 2013 to FY 2020 (in million U.S. dollars),” by Matej Mikulic, 23 January 2020, in Statista: The Statistics Portal … https://www.statista.com/statistics/618857/total-federal-drug-control-spending-in-us/ ..

$132B ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCREASE IN TAX REVENUES FROM NATIONWIDE LEGALIZATION OF MARIJUANA

According to the Washington Post, nationwide legalization of marijuana might result in $132 billion tax revenues annually

Link: “Post Nation: Study: Legal marijuana could generate more than $132 billion in federal tax revenue and 1 million jobs,” by Katie Zezima, 10 January 2018 …  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2018/01/10/study-legal-marijuana-could-generate-more-than-132-billion-in-federal-tax-revenue-and-1-million-jobs/?utm_term=.dee696c70135 ..

It seems to me that generation of jobs is a moot point in the above article, since the jobs are already there, in our economy, but just not included in the job statistics. Further, income tax revenue from legalization of these jobs is included as part of the $132 billion revenue figure in the above article.

So, the important figure there is the $132 billion annual revenue for nationwide legalization of marijuana, I note this figure takes into account payroll tax deductions, a retail sales tax of 15 percent, and business tax revenues, which seems appropriate to me. I note also they are calculating federal revenue rather than state or local revenue (i.e., ‘sin taxes’).

$708.6B ESTIMATED INCREASE IN TAX REVENUES FROM NATIONWIDE LEGALIZATION OF ALL RECREATIONAL DRUGS

I was unable to find comparable estimates for generation of revenue from legalization of sales of all categories of recreational drugs, including marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and other recreational drugs. However, this may be estimated as follows:

According to a 2010 Cato Institute report, the ratio of tax revenues for legalization of all drugs, to tax revenues for legalization of marijuana, was 46.7B : 8.7B. For these data, see …

Link: “Commentary: Making an Economic Case for Legalizing Drugs,” by Jeffrey Miron and Katherine Waldock. This article appeared in The Philadelphia Inquirer on 3 October 2010 … https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/making-economic-case-legalizing-drugs ..

Plugging this ratio into the more recent estimate of $132B annual marijuana revenue, we get:

46.7B / 8.7B = X / 132B  … and

X = $708.6B … X being the current estimated annual revenues for legalization of all drugs nationwide.

$686.2B ESTIMATED ANNUAL NET IMPROVEMENT IN THE FEDERAL BOTTOM LINE

This estimate of $708.6B may be on the high side. However, going with this figure, and using the prior bolded figures, let’s consider what federal revenue changes might take place if all recreational drugs were legalized nationwide.

  • The current $50.2 billion dollar cost for addiction treatment, healthcare, and lost job productivity would stay roughly the same.
  • The current $27.8 billion dollar annual federal drug control expense would be greatly curtailed.
  • The current estimated annual revenues for legalization of all drugs nationwide would be $708.6B.

On the plus side for the federal government are the last two bullets: $27.8B plus $708.6B = a total of $736.4B total ‘fattening of the federal coffers’.

This increase in the federal bottom line might resolve the issue of the first-bullet minus: A portion of the federal increase might be set aside to completely cover the $50.2 billion dollar annual cost for addiction treatment, healthcare, and lost job productivity would stay roughly the same.

This would leave a net improvement in the federal bottom line of $736.4B less $50.2B = net $686.2B. 

$17B ESTIMATED ANNUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE STATE AND LOCAL BOTTOM LINE DUE TO ‘SIN TAX’ INCREASES

An added plus would be sin taxes on that might optionally be levied by state and local governments. In 2014, state sin taxes for were $32.5B for currently legal activities and products such as alcohol, tobacco, casino, racino, and gaming. The largest category was tobacco at $16.9B.

The retail value of 2017 annual tobacco sales in the United States was about $121B

Link: “Market value of tobacco in the United States from 2013 to 2018 (in million U.S. dollars),” in Statista: The Statistics Portal,” https://www.statista.com/statistics/491709/tobacco-united-states-market-value/ ..

From 2000 to 2010, Americans spend about $100B annually on illegal drugs, including cocaine, marijuana, heroin, and methamphetamine, according to the RAND Drug Policy Research Center for the Office of National Drug Control Policy. This is the most recent figure I have on the market value of illegal drugs in the United States, so I’ll go with this.

Link: “Americans Spent About A Trillion Dollars On Illegal Drugs In The Last Decade,” by Matt Ferner, 13 March 2014, in Huffington Post … https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/13/americans-trillion-dollars-drugs_n_4943601.html ..

Looking at these two figures: 2017 annual tobacco sales at $121B, and 2010 estimated annual illegal drug sales at $100 billion, we might consider these to be roughly equal.

Thus the sin tax on legalized recreational drugs sales might be anticipated to be about what states and local governments receive in annual sin tax for tobacco: that is, about $17B annually.

FEDERAL LEGISLATION THAT MIGHT GET AROUND THE MORAL ISSUE STATES HAVE WITH LEGALIZATION OF DRUGS

This crunching of the figures makes it clear that the most logical thing to do would be to legalize all recreational drugs, and generate federal and state revenues from their sales. However, many people in the United States have strong moral stands on recreational drugs.

In fact, the fury over legalization, or criminalization, of recreational drug use in America today is very similar to the fury over alcohol use that resulted in Prohibition … a ban on alcohol sales and use from 1920 to 1933. As I understand it, criminal activity around ‘bootlegging’ skyrocketed during those years. Then when Prohibition was repealed in 1933, the crime wave abated, and federal and local governments began to benefit from liquor revenues.

I feel we might have the same benefits with regard to recreational drugs in this way …

  • The federal government might legalize all recreational drug use and sales.
  • States might have the power to prohibit recreational drug use and sales, either altogether or in part.
  • Those states that legalize recreational drug use and sales, either altogether or in part, might get the benefit of remuneration by the federal government, based on increased federal revenues from recreational drug sales in their state.
  • Federal remuneration to states that decide to legalize recreational drugs might be earmarked for drug-use-related health care, addiction treatment, and health education for schools, and for drug users and their families.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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MORE INFORMATION

Tobacco tax revenues in the United States are expected to be about $14 billion dollars for the year 2018 …

Link: “Tobacco tax revenue and forecast in the United States from 2000 to 2025 (in billion U.S. dollars).” by Erin Duffin, 4 March 2020, in Statista: The Statistics Portal … https://www.statista.com/statistics/248964/revenues-from-tobacco-tax-and-forecast-in-the-us/ ..

Liquor tax revenues in the United States are expected to be about $10 billion dollars for the year 2018 …

Link: “Alcohol tax revenue in the United States from 2000 to 2025 (in billion U.S. dollars),” by Erin Duffin, 4 March 2020, in Statista: The Statistics Portal … https://www.statista.com/statistics/248952/revenues-from-alcohol-tax-and-forecast-in-the-us/ ..

By comparison, total United States government receipts for 2018 are expected to be about 3.65 trillion dollars

Link: “Total receipts of the U.S. government in fiscal years 2000 to 2025 (in trillion U.S. dollars),” by Erin Duffin, 3 March 2020, in Statista: The Statistics Portal … https://www.statista.com/statistics/200405/receipts-of-the-us-government-since-fiscal-year-2000/ ..

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