Tag Archives: radio blackouts

Solar Cycle 25 and Predictions of Social Unrest . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 25 October 2018

  • ISES SOLAR CYCLE SUNSPOT NUMBER PROGRESSION FOR SOLAR CYCLE 24 AND HALF OF SOLAR CYCLE 23 (YEARS 2000-2018)
  • ISES SOLAR CYCLE Ap PROGRESSION, YEARS 2000-2018
    • The Planetary A-Index versus the Planetary K-Index
  • 400 YEARS OF SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS
    • Will Solar Cycle 25 Continue the ‘Milding’ Trend?
  • SOLAR MAXIMA AND SOCIAL UNREST IN EUROPE, YEARS 1750-2000
    • What Is the Likelihood That Social Unrest Will Occur at Times Other than those of Solar Cycle Maxima?
    • Prediction of Likely Time Frame of Social Unrest in a Global Context, During Upcoming Solar Cycle 25
  • MORE INFORMATION
    • Annual Space Weather Graphs for 1976-2016

Dear Ones,

As the current Solar Cycle 24 sputters to a halt, I am wondering what is in store for Earth, with regard to Sunspot frequency and also with regard to social unrest, during the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. Consequently, I have done some investigation about research on Solar Cycle statistics and historical annual statistics numbers of sunspots, and on congruence between solar cycle maxima and violent events such as Revolutions, in the European arena …

ISES SOLAR CYCLE SUNSPOT NUMBER PROGRESSION FOR SOLAR CYCLE 24 AND HALF OF SOLAR CYCLE 23 (YEARS 2000-2018)

SWPC/NOAA has come out with a great space weather graph of Solar Cycle 24 (which is just now ending), and half of Solar Cycle 23, which preceded it.

As can be seen, we are now ‘dragging bottom’ at the end of Solar Cycle 24 …

Image: “ISES Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression, January 2000-September 2018,” by NOAA/SWPC Boulder, CO … public domain

Image: “ISES Solar Cycle Sunspot Number Progression, January 2000-September 2018,” by NOAA/SWPC Boulder, CO … public domain

ISES SOLAR CYCLE Ap PROGRESSION, YEARS 2000-2018

The below chart shows the Planetary Ap Index for most of the current Solar Cycle 24, which began in December 2008 and is thought to have ended in mid-2018, and the prior Solar Cycle 23, which lasted from August 1996 to December 2008.

I note the much greater amplitude of the Planetary A-Index swings during Solar Cycle 23, and especially the standout upswing in 2003.

I note as well the Planetary Index maximum for Solar Cycle 23 was in the mid-20s … and for Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle, was in the mid-10s. I expect this indicates a much less heated Thermosphere (1) for Earth for the currently ending Solar Cycle …

Image: “ISES Solar Cycle Ap Progression,” Data from January 2000 through September 2018, by NOAA/SWPC Boulder, CO … public domain

Image: “ISES Solar Cycle Ap Progression,” Data from January 2000 through September 2018, by NOAA/SWPC Boulder, CO … public domain

The Planetary A-Index versus the Planetary K-Index

I wondered why the graph shows the Planetary A-index, rather than the accustomed Planetary K-index. I found out that the Planetary A-index “provides a daily average level for geomagnetic activity. Because of the non-linear relationship of the K-scale to magnetometer fluctuations, it is not meaningful to take the average of a set of K-indices. What is done instead is to convert each K back into a linear scale called the ‘equivalent three hourly range’ a-index … –from Link: “K-index,” by Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index … CC BY-SA 3.0 ..

400 YEARS OF SUNSPOT OBSERVATIONS

Here is a graph with as much data as can be ‘fudged up’ for 400 years of sunspot activity. Note that we are currently in what has been termed the ‘Modern Maximum’, which appears to be quieting down …

Image: “400 year sunspot history, including the Maunder Minimum .” This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohde and is part of the Global Warming Art project. 23 November 2015 … CC BY-SA 3.0

Image: “400 year sunspot history, including the Maunder Minimum .” This figure was prepared by Robert A. Rohde and is part of the Global Warming Art project. 23 November 2015 … from Wikimedia Commons … CC BY-SA 3.0

Here is the description of the graph, from Wikimedia Commons …

“This figure summarizes sunspot number observations. Since c. 1749, continuous monthly averages of sunspot activity have been available and are shown here as reported by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, World Data Center for the Sunspot Index, at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. These figures are based on an average of measurements from many different observatories around the world. Prior to 1749, sporadic observations of sunspots are available. These were compiled and placed on consistent monthly framework by Hoyt & Schatten (1998a, 1998b).

“The most prominent feature of this graph is the c. 11 year solar magnetic cycle which is associated with the natural waxing and waning of solar activity.

“On longer time scales, the sun has shown considerable variability, including the long Maunder Minimum when almost no sunspots were observed, the less severe Dalton Minimum, and increased sunspot activity during the last fifty years, known as the Modern Maximum. The causes for these variations are not well understood, but because sunspots and associated faculae affect the brightness of the sun, solar luminosity is lower during periods of low sunspot activity. It is widely believed that the low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum may be among the principal causes of the chilly Little Ice Age, circa 1350-1850 A.D.” –from Link: Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png .. CC-BY-SA 3.0

Will Solar Cycle 25 Continue the ‘Milding’ Trend?

Although, very clearly, past solar cycle sunspot performance offers, really, no clue as to sunspot activity in the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, it is possible that the upcoming solar cycle will be a continuation of the ‘milding’ trend currently in place …

Here is a graph predicting Solar Cycle 25 activity, based on historical performance. Being an ‘old salt’ with regard to stock performance prediction based on historical performance, and seeing a kind of congruence of that with solar activity, I would take the below sunspot prediction with a grain of salt …

Link: “Solar Cycle 25 Prediction: We find that the polar fields indicate that Cycle 25 will be similar in size to (or slightly smaller than) the current small cycle, Cycle 24” …  http://solarcyclescience.com/Predictions/Cycle25_Prediction.png ..

The above graph is from …

Link: “Discover the Predictions,” by Solar Cycle Science …  http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts.html#Cycle25Prediction ..

SOLAR MAXIMA AND SOCIAL UNREST IN EUROPE, YEARS 1750-2000

Here is research on solar maxima and violent occurrences such as revolutions in Europe. The conclusion of the author is that there is a relationship …

Link: “Solar Activity and Human History,” by Adam Michalec … http://www.oa.uj.edu.pl/A.Michalec/history.html ..

I note the table of revolutions and other violent governmental events lists 19 such events during that span of years, at times other than solar maxima ..

And then, the graph of solar maxima indicates 15 of the tabulated events occurred during solar maxima … which I feel to be pretty good correspondence …

What Is the Likelihood That Social Unrest Will Occur at Times Other than those of Solar Cycle Maxima?

Of 19 violent historical events in Europe from years 1750 to 2000, it looks like 15 can be pegged to solar cycle maxima. It seems to me that would imply that the likelihood of such an even occurring at a time other than the solar cycle maximum would be 4/19 x 100 = 21%.

Assuming that the European data might be applicable to global social unrest, then about 1 in 5 incidents of social unrest, globally, might be anticipated to occur at times other than those of solar cycle maxima.

Prediction of Likely Time Frame of Social Unrest in a Global Context, During Upcoming Solar Cycle 25

While, on average, solar cycles last 11 years, the variance is 9 to 14 years, according to Wikipedia …

Link: “Solar Cycle,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle ..

The “Discover the Predictions” graph shows Solar Cycle 24 ending in later 2019, it looks like, while Wikipedia has a projection based of mid-2018 as the end date …

Link: “Solar Cycle 24,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24 ..

Intuitively, I will go with the Wikipedia estimate. Very roughly, if Solar Cycle 24 is just now ending, and if Solar Cycle 25 lasts the average 11 years, then it will last from 2019 through 2029.

And the next solar cycle maximum might, very roughly, be predicted as occurring in the years 2023-2026.

If Adam Michalec’s research can be extrapolated to a global context, then the likelihood that social unrest will occur, globally, during upcoming Solar Cycle 25 is …

  • approximately 80 percent likely during the years 2023-2026 (if they correspond to the upcoming solar cycle maximum), and …
  • approximately 20 percent likely during years 2019-2022 and 2027-2029.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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MORE INFORMATION

Annual Space Weather Graphs for 1976-2016

Here are a very good set of graph by the Solar Terrestrial Centre for Excellence … http://www.stce.be/news/366/welcome.html … showing annual data on Space Weather for 1976-2016.

The graphs use NOAA/SWPC coloring, with yellow indicating minor space weather conditions, and on up to dark red indicating extreme space weather conditions …

Image: NOAA Space Weather Scales … http://www.stce.be/sites/default/files/field/image/Picture1_33.png … 

There are three graphs: One shows Radio Blackouts, the next shows Proton Storms, and the last shows Geomagnetic storms …

Image: Radio Blackouts, Annual Statistics for 1976-2016, by Solar Terrestrial Centre for Excellence …  http://www.stce.be/sites/default/files/field/image/Picture2_23.png ..

Image: Proton Storms, Annual Statistics for 1976-2016, by Solar Terrestrial Centre for Excellence … http://www.stce.be/sites/default/files/field/image/Picture3_20.png ..

Image: Geomagnetic Storms, Annual Statistics for 1976-2016, by Solar Terrestrial Centre for Excellence … http://www.stce.be/sites/default/files/field/image/Picture4_7.png ..

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FOOTNOTE

(1) For more about the thermosphere, see …

Link: “Earth’s Atmosphere and the Collective Mind of Mankind and Other Earth Beings,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 28 September 2018 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-afK ..

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space weather, solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, Solar Cycle 24, Solar Cycle 25, Solar Terrestrial Centre for Excellence, thermosphere, Planetary A-index, Planetary K-index, sunspot activity, solar events, space weather prediction, NOAA space weather scales, radio blackouts, proton storms, geostorms, geomagnetic storms, social unrest, revolution, government,

Airline Navigation Backup Systems Question . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 29 September 2017

  • SUSPICIOUSOBSERVERS NOTES EARTH EFFECTS OF YESTERDAY’S GEOSTORM
  • QUESTION: COULD THE AIRLINES BE COVERING UP FLIGHT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FAILURES CAUSED BY SOLAR STORMS?
  • CIVILIAN AIRLINES FLIGHTS NO LONGER INCLUDE ENGINEERS OR NAVIGATORS
  • THE STATE OF eLORAN AS A BACKUP FOR GNSS FAILURE: IN THE WINGS, BUT NOT YET HERE
  • CARRINGTON EVENT LARGE AIRCRAFT IN-FLIGHT SCENARIO

Dear Ones,

SUSPICIOUSOBSERVERS NOTES EARTH EFFECTS OF YESTERDAY’S GEOSTORM

I was viewing this video just, to do with the effects of yesterday’s solar storm …

Video: “Record-Breaking Comet, Solar Storm Effects | S0 News Sep.29.2017,” by SuspiciousObservers … https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=27&v=lm4QuCXy3Bc ..

Here’s the Kp index from the solar storm (which was only moderately severe), and had to do with influx of solar winds to Earth:

Image: Kp Index, 29 September 2017 12:30:02 UTC, from NOAA/SWPC … public domain because .gov … This image shows 8 3-hour intervals ‘in the red’ in the last 2 and a half days. Of these, 2 bars were Kp=7, 3 bars were Kp=6, and 3 bars were Kp=5

Image: Kp Index, 29 September 2017 12:30:02 UTC, from NOAA/SWPC … public domain because .gov … This image shows 8 3-hour intervals ‘in the red’ in the last 2 and a half days. Of these, 2 bars were Kp=7, 3 bars were Kp=6, and 3 bars were Kp=5

Nevertheless, these Earth events were apparently associated to the solar storm:

  • A global booking system failure for the airlines, resulting in massive flight delays (1)
  • A transformer fire, resulting in a power outage for 6,000 customers in Snohomish, WA (2)
  • A power outage on a train in the Philadelphia, PA, area, leading the travellers to self-evacuate (3)
  • Playstation went down again. This is a product of Virgin Media, a British internet services provider (4)

QUESTION: COULD THE AIRLINES BE COVERING UP FLIGHT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FAILURES CAUSED BY SOLAR STORMS?

When the airlines’ booking systems go down, I wonder if flight tower communications or aircraft flight management systems might also be down … If that were true, surely the airlines wouldn’t want to make this public? Could such a coverup be going on?

CIVILIAN AIRLINES FLIGHTS NO LONGER INCLUDE ENGINEERS OR NAVIGATORS

I read in Wikipedia that civilian airline flights no longer include flight engineers or navigators. Instead, these tasks are undertaken by airlines’ flight management systems (FMS), which depend upon GPS and INS, often with radio navigation backup. (5)

As to this airline radio navigation backup, I’ve read at SWPC/NOAA that geostorms can affect both high frequency and low frequency radio wave transmissions. (6)

Large commercial aircraft, in flight, use VHF (very high frequency) radio when near land, and short-wave nagivation while over the oceans (because they are then out of VHF radio range). (7)

Thus, it appears that all large commercial aircraft are at navigation risk from geostorm radio blackouts … whether they are over land, or over the ocean when the storm hits.

THE STATE OF eLORAN AS A BACKUP FOR GNSS FAILURE: IN THE WINGS, BUT NOT YET HERE

I’ve done some reading on eLORAN as a backup for failure of the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). It looks like there’s a proposal to get it up and running, and that this proposal has passed the House of Representatives:

Link: “House Passes Bill Requiring eLORAN to Safeguard GPS,” by Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation, 24 July 2017 … https://rntfnd.org/2017/07/24/house-passes-bill-requiring-eloran-to-safeguard-gps/ ..

As far as I can tell, this bill has yet to be approved by the Senate. On the other hand there is the good news that eLORAN and LORAN testing was underway in June 2017:

Link: “eLORAN and LORAN Testing Underway in Late June — GPS World,” by Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation, 7 June 2017 … https://rntfnd.org/2017/06/07/eloran-and-loran-testing-underway-in-late-june-gps-world/ ..

CARRINGTON EVENT LARGE AIRCRAFT IN-FLIGHT SCENARIO

Until eLORAN is available as a backup, then, to the extent that FMS rely on GNSS, then, they are set up for quite some difficulties should there be a Carrington event. Worst case scenario would be loss of many, or most, in-flight aircraft because of navigation failure during such an event.

Those large aircraft that succeeded in landing would be navigated down by eyesight, out of luck, since there would be no navigators onboard, if I understand it correctly? Then, air traffic control would also be down, so there would be a considerable hazard of collision with other large aircraft on landing.

On the other hand, small aircraft, which are used to piloting by sight, might be relatively ok to fly and land at small craft airports.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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FOOTNOTES

(1) Link: “Airlines Suffer Worldwide Delays After Global Booking System Fails,” by Christopher Jasper, Thomas Seal, and Benjamin D Katz,  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/airlines-suffer-worldwide-delays-as-amadeus-booking-system-fails ..

(2) Link: “Fire at Snohomish substation spreads to brush near homes,” posted 1:56 pm , September 28, 2017, by Q13 New Staff, updated at 03:51 pm, 28 September 2017 … http://q13fox.com/2017/09/28/fire-at-snohomish-substation-spreads-to-brush-may-be-threatening-homes/ ..

(3) Link: “Traffic: Power outage leads SEPTA customers to self-evacuate,” by Katherine Scott, at ABC Action News at WPVI-TV, Philadelphia, PA … http://6abc.com/traffic/power-outage-leads-septa-customers-to-self-evacuate/2464333/ ..

(4) Link: “PSN down – PS4 users get ’server maintenance’ error as online gaming network not working: PSN is down right now with the PS4 online servers not working for hundreds of users,” by Dion Dassanayake, published:

(5) Link: “Flight Management System,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_management_system ..

(6) Link: “NOAA Space Weather Scales: Radio Blackouts,” at Space Weather Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation ..

See also: Link: “Geomagnetic Effects on Radio Propagation,” by Natural Resources Canada … http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/tech/se-hf-en.php ..

(7) Link: “Shortwave Bands,” from Wikipedia …https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortwave_bands ..

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solar events, Carrington events, GNSS, eLORAN, flight management systems, global navigation, SuspiciousObservers, airline navigation, geostorms, flight navigation, short-wave radio, geostorms, radio blackouts, transportation,

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Alerts and Historical Data . by Alice B. Clagett

Published on 7 September 2017; revised 7 September 2017 at 12:30 pm PDT

  • UP-TO-DATE SPACE WEATHER ALERTS
  • NASA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HISTORICAL DATA
  • NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALE DESCRIPTIONS

Dear Ones,

UP-TO-DATE SPACE WEATHER ALERTS

Because of the incoming geostorm, I have taken a look at “Alerts, Watches and Warnings” from the Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC/NOAA) … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ..

More technical, more detailed, and more prolific current Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC/NOAA) reports can be seen here … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings ..

I notice that the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology’s Space Weather Service (SWS) has the current detailed space weather data for Australia nicely formatted …

Link: “Space Weather Services” … http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/index.php … In the section “Today’s Space Weather” click on “Detailed Forecast” … That information is courtesy of Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC/NOAA).

NASA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HISTORICAL DATA

NASA SWPC offers weekly historical reports on the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information website. It looks like these are available as pdfs a few weeks after the fact.

To access these historical data, go to National Centers for Environmental Information/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration … https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/spaceweather.html … and then, under NOAA Space Weather Products …

Each weekly pdf contains Space Weather Highlights, Space Weather Outlook, and Space Weather Data.

NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALE DESCRIPTIONS

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at Link: “Space Weather Scales” … https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation … These describe the …

  • geomagnetic storm (G), which relate to the planetary K (Kp) index,
  • solar radiation storm (S), which relate to the flux level of greater than 10 MeV (i.e., 10 million electron volt) particles (1), and
  • radio blackout space weather scales (R), which have to do with the strength of solar flares M1 through X20. (2)

These scales are labeled G1 through G5, S1 through S5, and R1 through R5, respectively.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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FOOTNOTES

(1) “In high-energy physics, the electronvolt is often used as a unit of momentum. A potential difference of 1 volt causes an electron to gain an amount of energy (i.e., 1 eV). This gives rise to usage of eV (and keV, MeV, GeV or TeV) as units of momentum, for the energy supplied results in acceleration of the particle.” –from Link: “Electronvolt,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronvolt … WP:CC BY-SA ..

Note that “MeV and meV are multiples and submultiples of the electron volt unit referring to 1,000,000 eV and 0.001 eV, respectively.” –from Link: “MEV,” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MEV  … WP:CC BY-SA

Thus these two … MeV and meV are worlds apart in magnitude, based merely on the capitalization of the initial ‘M’ … or the lack thereof. The term ‘MeV’, sometimes referred to as ‘megaelectron volt’, pertains to a million electron volts of energy, which would mean very considerable acceleration of a particle sent forth from our Sun during a coronal mass ejection.

It seems to me that this might have to do with the solar wind speed data we see on Space Weather … https://www.spaceweather.com/ ..

(2) As there was a solar flare variously reported as X28 and X45 in 2003, this scale might be rendered, on the far end, unhelpful. For information on the 2003 X flare, see …

Link: “Biggest Ever Solar Flare Was Even Bigger Than Thought,” from American Geophysical Union, 16 March 2004, in “Science Daily” … https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/03/040316072425.htm ..

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space weather, NOAA, SWPC, astrogeophysics, solar events, Mev, particle acceleration, radio blackouts, geostorms, solar radiation, NASA,