Written and published on 6 September 2017; revised on 7 September 2017
Revised at 12:45 pm on 6 September 2017: There was an additional X1 flare at 1301 UT today … That would be 6:01 am PDT. Just now, while outside, I sensed another short-duration solar flare, but it is not yet appearing on the data.
Revised at 8:20 am on 7 September 2017: NOAA SWPC has strong geostorm watch in effect for 7-9 September 2017; see … Link: G3 Watch: 7 Through 9 September, 2017 Due to CME Effects, by Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC/NOAA) … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-watch-7-through-9-september-2017-due-cme-effects ..
7 September 2017: New events since yesterday, per NOAA:
X1.3 Solar Flare 2017 Sep 07 1420 UTC
M7.3 Solar Flare 2017 Sep 07 1013 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted, Issue Time: 2017 Sep 06 2126 UTC
- INCOMING FLARES AND CMES AS OF THE MORNING OF 6 SEPTEMBER 2017, PDT
- WHERE TO FIND OUT WHETHER THE X-FLARES WILL BE EARTH-DIRECTED
- GUIDELINES ON PREPARING FOR SOLAR EVENTS
- TODAY’S FIRST X-FLARE, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY EARTH-DIRECTED
- SDO/AIA Images of the First X-Flare
- Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Solar Flare Photos
- TODAY’S SECOND X-FLARE, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY EARTH-DIRECTED
- Tweets on the Second X-Flare
- Estimated Arrival Time for Today’s Second X-Flare (If It Is Earth-Directed): 2 am PDT on 7 September 2017
- MIGHT TODAY’S X-FLARES PRODUCE A CARRINGTON EVENT?
- Speed of Today’s Second X-Flare Compared to that of the Solar Flare Causing the 1859 Carrington Event
- Duration of the X-Flares
- Resonance Effect with Incoming M-class Flare Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
- THE IMPORTANCE OF SELF-RELIANCE DURING A CARRINGTON EVENT
- Responsiveness of NASA in 2012 Near-Carrington Event: Two Years Late in Alerted the Public
- On Space Weather Information That Understates the Need for Preparedness
- On the Inappropriateness of Disinformation or ‘Crowd Control’ Efforts by Government and News Media
- On Acting with Common Sense During a Natural Disaster
- ON JUDGING SOLAR STORMS FROM AURORAS THAT WE OBSERVE IN THE NIGHT SKY
- Planetary K Index (Kp Index) and the Midnight Aurora Lines
- ELECTRIC AND ELECTRONIC EFFECTS OF CARRINGTON EVENTS
- Unplug Electric and Electronic Equipment
- Stay Away from Electric Lines, Power Stations, and Electric and Electronic Equipment
- PREPARING FOR POWER GRID FAILURES DURING CARRINGTON EVENTS
- San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles, Power Outages This Summer
- My Extrapolation Based on the Above
- LAPD Circular Offering Tips on What to Do During Rolling Power Outages
- California Department of Water Resources Blackout Suggestions
- Alice’s Suggestions for Food Supplies and Cooking
- United States Areas of Probable Power System Collapse During Severe Space Weather
- More Information on Power Grid Failures
- MY PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OF SPACE WEATHER
- MORE INFORMATION ON CARRINGTON EVENTS
- INFORMATION ON X-FLARES
INCOMING FLARES AND CMES AS OF THE MORNING OF 6 SEPTEMBER 2017, PDT
There have been 2 X-flares in the last 6 hours …
- The first was X2 (considerable),
- and the second X9.3 (massive).
Their X-ray energies will have already arrived at Earth shortly after the flares happened. They are most likely Earth-directed; this is still being studied, and will be announced as soon as it is known.
Meanwhile, there is a coronal mass ejection (CME) from an M-class flare due to impact Earth late this afternoon or this evening (6 September 2017) . From what I could see of the NOAA video, it looks like this CME will be largely, but not completely, a direct hit (not the typical ‘glancing blow’ as is so frequently termed by NOAA).
Here is the GOES Xray Flux graph for this morning …
Image: GOES Xray flux for 6 September 2017, from NOAA, public domain … DESCRIPTION: 2 X-class flares on 6 September 2017
WHERE TO FIND OUT WHETHER THE X-FLARES WILL BE EARTH-DIRECTED
The two X-flares are, at this point, considered to be at least partly Earth-directed. However, such predictions change from hour to hour, and there is a fair amount of uncertainty involved. Sometimes, for instance, CMEs may appear to be Earth directed, or appear to be about to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s atmosphere, and then may miss our atmosphere entirely.
Also, see the most recent Suspicious Observers daily video here … https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/videos … These come out early in the morning Pacific Time usually.
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s home page offers space weather condition alerts … https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ..
See also “Alerts, Watches and Warnings” from Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (SWPC/NOAA) … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings… This site is updated frequently, but is more technical in presentation.
NOAA Space Weather Scales descriptions can be found at NOAA Space Weather Scales … https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation ..
The incoming M-class CME may interrupt internet transmission later on today, so it may be difficult to get information on the X-flares during that time.
The same media interruption might take place as the X-flares approach Earth, so it would be best to be prepared for these events beforehand, just in case.
GUIDELINES ON PREPARING FOR SOLAR EVENTS
Here are guidelines for ordinary people, working or at home, for schools, law enforcement, and so on during such a solar event …
Link: “Community Alert: Preparing for Panic Attacks and Cognitive Disfunction During Solar Events and Gateways,” by Alice B. Clagett, written on 19 February 2015; revised on 17 December 2015; updated on 24 March 2022 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-4xN ..
The articles in this compendium were prepared for people who are electromagnetic hypersensitive …
Link: “Compendium: Solar Storm Geoshelters,” by Alice B. Clagett, published on 11 January 2018; revised … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-bjF ..
TODAY’S FIRST X-FLARE, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY EARTH-DIRECTED
SDO/AIA Images of the First X-Flare
I took a look at a Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (SDO/AIA) image of the first X-flare this morning. To me, it looks to be Earth-directed, but from the video I gather it was relatively short in duration.
Nevertheless, because it is fast-moving, there will likely be some resonance and reverb adding to the intensity of an ongoing geostorm, if in fact the first X-flare is Earth directed.
Here is the SDO/AIA image of today’s first X-flare …
Image: SDO/AIA image of first X-flare on 6 September 2017, from NASA, public domain
There are more spectacular images of this flare, but by my lights, they overstate the magnitude of the solar event because they lack fine detail. However, for comparison, here is one such image of today’s first X-flare event …
Image: “GOES 13 Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) for the first X-class flare on 6 September 2017,” from NOAA, public domain … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-13-solar-x-ray-imager-sxi ..
Solar Dynamics Observatory’s Solar Flare Photos
For different types of photographs of the Sun’s most recent solar flares, see …
Link: SDO/Solar Dynamics Observatory … https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ..
TODAY’S SECOND X-FLARE, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY EARTH-DIRECTED
And then we have the second X-flare of today (and any others that may occur today and tomorrow) to consider, as possibly adding to Earth EMF reverb if these subsequent X-flares produce Earth-directed CMEs.
According to Space Weather News … www.spaceweathernews.com … today’s second X-flare is X9.3 … very significant … the largest solar flare since the last Solar Cycle, and the 15th largest since recordkeeping started on X flares in February 1755 (1) …
Here is Stereo A, the first image available on this event … https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2017/09/06/ahead_20170906_cor2_512.mpg ..
Tweets on the Second X-Flare
At the bottom of the Solar Dynamic Observatory page … https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ … there is a link to tweets on solar events …
@The Sun Today … https://twitter.com/thesuntoday … which includes these comments …
- This is a Fast Type II CME, 2000 km/s … per Laura A. Hayes
- There are a resultant ham radio blackout, and GPS issues .. see
#hamradio and #GPS … per Dr. Tamitha Skov …
- The shortwave radio blackout region was over Africa, Europe, and the Atlantic Ocean .. for this see the NOAA Strong Xray flux data at … https://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/06sep17/blackoutmap.jpg?PHPSESSID=0c91tclboild8e6sgsa9mfuuj0 ..
Estimated Arrival Time for Today’s Second X-Flare (If It Is Earth-Directed): 2 am PDT on 7 September 2017
- Per the Sun Today tweet mentioned above, today’s second X-flare is travelling at 2000 km/s, which would be 7,200,000 km/hour.
- The distance from the Sun to the Earth is 149.6 million km.
- Dividing 149.6 M by 7.2 M, I get 20.78 hours from the time of the flare to Earth impact.
- Today’s second solar flare occurred at 1229 UTC on 6 September 2017. That would be 5:29 am Pacific Daylight Time.
- Adding the 20.78 hours estimated travel time to the 5.29 am PDT flare event moment, I get the likelihood that the X9.3 flare will arrive at Earth a little after 2 am tomorrow, 7 September 2017, or possibly as much as 12 hours later.
Another way of doing this calculation …
- The first estimate available on the travel time of X9.3 is about 21 hours.
- As there are 24 hours in a day, the CME ought to arrive in a little less than a day … about 3 hours less (i.e., 24 minus 21 hours)
- Since the flare happened at about 5:30 am PDT today, it ought to arrive three hours less than that tomorrow … i.e., about 2:30 am tomorrow.
- However, those of you who have been following space predictions will have observed that speed predictions are very rough estimates. The delta, the ‘wuss factor’ is about 6 hours, plus or minus.
- In the case of this flare, first estimates of speed are very high. I would thus be inclined to place it on the near end of estimates, and to double the 6-hour delta on the far side of ETA. Anyway, that is my view on the event at the moment.
I would appreciate the reader double-checking my calculations above, and offering any corrections needed …
MIGHT TODAY’S X-FLARES PRODUCE A CARRINGTON EVENT?
Carrington events are exceedingly rare; the last one happened in 1859. Here is a little from the Wikipedia article on that event …
“Studies have shown that a solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would likely cause more widespread problems for a modern and technology-dependent society … The solar storm of 2012 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth’s orbit without striking the planet …” –from Link: “Solar Storm of 1859” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 .. WP: CC BY-SA
Over the last solar cycle, we had a few weeks when two Earth-directed X-flares happened; yet there was no Carrington event. So it is quite possible there will be no Carrington event tomorrow or the next day.
Speed of Today’s Second X-Flare Compared to that of the Solar Flare Causing the 1859 Carrington Event
Comparing the speed of today’s X9.3 flare to that of the flare which produced the 1859 Carrington event, I have this from Wikipedia on the 1859 event …
“The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 150 million kilometre (93 million mile) journey. It is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME (typical CMEs take several days to arrive at Earth) was made possible by a prior CME, perhaps the cause of the large aurora event on August 29, that “cleared the way” of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington event …” –from Link: “Solar Storm of 1859” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 .. WP: CC BY-SA
Thus we have the 21-hour estimated travel time for today’s event, compared to the 17.6-hour travel time of the Carrington event. Based on speed alone, there is congruence that ups the ante re the possibility of a Carrington event tomorrow. This, however, is far from conclusive … a lot more like a long shot than a prediction.
Duration of the X-Flares
I do not have a statement about the duration of the solar event that caused the 1859 Carrington event. I note that the two X-flares so far today were short in duration, and this I feel to be encouraging towards a non-Carrington Earth impact, if the flares are Earth-directed.
Resonance Effect with Incoming M-class Flare Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
However, there will be a resonance swell effect because of today’s M-class solar flare incoming CME, and this increases the likelihood of a greater geostorm.
THE IMPORTANCE OF SELF-RELIANCE DURING A CARRINGTON EVENT
Responsiveness of NASA in 2012 Near-Carrington Event: Two Years Late in Alerted the Public
Wikipedia mentions there was a near-Carrington event in July 2012, and that NASA only shared this publicly in April 2014 …
“On July 23, 2012 a “Carrington-class” solar superstorm (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, solar EMP) was observed; its trajectory missed Earth in orbit. Information about these observations was first shared publicly by NASA on April 28, 2014 …” –from Link: “Solar Storm of 1859” in English Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 .. WP: CC BY-SA
From this I gather we cannot expect help from NASA real-time. In fact, quite the contrary. We must act with common sense to protect ourselves, our families, and our co-workers.
On Space Weather Information That Understates the Need for Preparedness
Along the same lines, NASA has posted a page about today’s two X-flares here …
Link: “Sun Erupts with Significant Flare,” by Karen C. Fox, at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 11 September 2017, Editor: Rob Garner … https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/two-significant-solar-flares-imaged-by-nasas-sdo ..
The images on the page are excellent; I feel this is NASA’s forte, to offer precise scientific data on space events. However, there is a passage on the web page with which I take issue …
“Solar flares are powerful bursts of radiation. Harmful radiation from a flare cannot pass through Earth’s atmosphere to physically affect humans on the ground, however — when intense enough — they can disturb the atmosphere in the layer where GPS and communications signals travel.” (public domain, since this is a .gov site)
On the Inappropriateness of Disinformation or ‘Crowd Control’ Efforts by Government and News Media
This passage is typical of the soft-shoe, soft-peddling ‘massage the data’ disinformation so often found in the news these days.
The government of the United States has been set up by the people and for the people. We, the people, pay the salaries of our government employees, along with the monies to support their scientific explorations.
The purpose of our government science programs is to convey scientific facts to the American people. We deserve to hear the unadulterated truth, and not to be mollycoddled along like half-cooked breakfast eggs!
As to whether solar flares can pass through the atmosphere and affect us and the ground itself … It is true that our atmosphere protects us from harmful radiation. Nevertheless, solar flares can have a profound effect on our lives …
- Moderate solar storms affect electric and electronic equipment.
- Severe solar storms affect earth’s power grids.
Thus I suggest that our space agencies provide tips, or links to tips, on electric and electronic equipment protection, on staying away from power lines and power stations during geostorms, and on power grid failure preparedness, during geostorm alerts.
More on these topics can be found in the sections “Electric and Electronic Effects of Carrington Events” and “Preparing for Power Grid Failures During Carrington Events” below.
On Acting with Common Sense During a Natural Disaster
Of course, this is true of any natural disaster or emergency: We cannot expect others to provide for us what we must necessarily do for ourselves. It is up to each of us to be prepared, and to help others who are less provident than ourselves.
The help that we get from our government arrives in due time, and for this reason, I count myself very fortunate to live here in America. Meantime, when natural disasters occur, let us keep a clear head and take action as needed.
This American Red Cross link will help your family develop a disaster preparedness plan …
ON JUDGING SOLAR STORMS FROM AURORAS THAT WE OBSERVE IN THE NIGHT SKY
One of the ways to know if a strong solar storm is occurring is by observing the night sky. During the 1859 Carrington event, for instance, auroras were seen as far south as the Caribbean. Here is Wikipedia’s description …
“On September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Auroras were seen around the world,
- those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean;
- those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning …
- People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora’s light …
- The aurora was visible as far from the poles as Sub-Saharan Africa (Senegal, Mauritania, perhaps Monrovia, Liberia), Monterrey and Tampico in Mexico, Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii, …
- and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia …
“Estimates of the storm strength range from −800 nT to −1750 nT …” –from Link: “Solar Storm of 1859” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 .. WP: CC BY-SA [bullets and paragraphing are mine. –Alice]
Planetary K Index (Kp Index) and the Midnight Aurora Lines
Here are images relating the planetary K index (the Kp index) to auroras visible in North America and Eurasia. The higher the Kp index, typically, the stronger the solar event that is impacting Earth …
Image: Midnight aurora boundary at different levels of geomagnetic activity in North America, from NOAA, public domain, from English Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora … WP CC BY-SA
Image: Midnight aurora boundary at different levels of geomagnetic activity in Eurasia, from NOAA, public domain, from English Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora .. WP CC BY-SA
ELECTRIC AND ELECTRONIC EFFECTS OF CARRINGTON EVENTS
Unplug Electric and Electronic Equipment
Unplug electric and electronic equipment, as a shock wave can come through power lines that might adversely effect or even render useless this equipment.
Stay Away from Electric Lines, Power Stations, and Electric and Electronic Equipment
Wikipedia describes electric shock from telegraph systems during the 1859 Carrington event …
“Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks … Telegraph pylons threw sparks … Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies …” –from Link: “Solar Storm of 1859” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 .. WP: CC BY-SA
From this, I would suggest staying away from electric lines, power stations (in case of arcing or sparks), and electric and electronic equipment during X-flare events, and especially Carrington events.
PREPARING FOR POWER GRID FAILURES DURING CARRINGTON EVENTS
San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles, Power Outages This Summer
In early July 2017, there was an explosion and fire at a Department of Water and Power plant in the San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles, that left 140,000 customers without power for about 12 hours …
Link: “DWP still investigating cause of transformer explosion that left 140,000 Valley customers without power,” by Ben Poston and Dakota Smith, 9 July 2017 … http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-dwp-power-outage-20170709-story.html ..
The San Fernando Valley is very hot in the summertime, and the blackout occurred during a heat wave.
There has been another blackout in the San Fernando Valley (which is local to me) since then; this second Department of Water and Power forced power outage affected about 16,000 people for up to about 8 hours overnight. –from Link: “Over 16,000 Affected by Power Outages, Planned and Unplanned, from San Dimas to San Fernando Valley, posted 9:30 am, 30 August 2017, by Marissa Wenzke, Chris Burrous, and Lauren Lyster … http://ktla.com/2017/08/30/power-outages-planned-and-unplanned-frustrate-residents-from-san-dimas-to-san-fernando-valley-where-16000-were-impacted/ ..
Then there are the rolling blackouts that have been hitting California in 2017 …
Link: “Rolling Blackouts Hit California Again,” by ABC News, 19 March 2017 … http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=93795&page=1 [broken link]
Link: “Amid Heat Wave, Fire Causes Power Failure for Part of Los Angeles,” by Matt Stevens, 9 July 2017 … https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/us/los-angeles-heat-fire.html?mcubz=3 ..
My Extrapolation Based on the Above
I gather from the above that there are already power shortage issues and power station maintenance issues in United states urban areas.
Thus, from the above, and from other reading I have done, I extrapolate that, in the event of a Carrington event affecting the power grids in United States urban areas, there would likely be an interval of, say, from a week to a month, in which we might anticipate having only emergency power in hospitals and police stations, and none at all for consumers.
Then after that, we might having rolling blackouts (or would that be ‘whiteins’?) offering power at intervals throughout the cities.
Then after that we might expect power to slowly be restored to urban areas.
LAPD Circular Offering Tips on What to Do During Rolling Power Outages
I see also that the Department of Water and Power (DWP) has provided the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) with tips on what to do in the event of rolling blackouts (although DWP forecasts there will be no rolling blackouts) …
Link: “Rolling Blackouts Circular,” at Los Angeles Police Department … http://www.lapdonline.org/get_informed/content_basic_view/23511 ..
This circular notes that blackouts can affect these very important things that would affect public health and safety …
- traffic signals
- life-support systems, and
- security systems
For preparation, they suggest, among other things …
- Have flashlights and extra batteries on hand
- Leave one light turned on; that will alert you when the power comes back on
- Keep refrigerator doors closed, to avoid food spoilage
- Have a battery-operated radio, for news
- Have a non-electric clock, hand can opener, and extra blankets on hand
- Check on elderly neighbors, or those who might be affected by loss of power to their home life-support systems [This might include chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, for instance]
California Department of Water Resources Blackout Suggestions
The California Department of Water Resources has these additional blackout suggestions …
- Do not call 911 unless there’s a real emergency
- Stay hydrated
- Slow down at intersections while driving; traffic lights may be out.
–from Link: “Flex Your Power” handout, California Department of Water Resources … https://water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/pubs/energy/flex_your_power/flex-your-power.pdf ..
Alice’s Suggestions for Food Supplies and Cooking
- Have canned food and gallon bottles of water on hand. Canned food, because of its water content, helps a person to stay hydrated. It requires no cooking, which is a plus in the event stoves are also not working.
- Have a propane or sterno can camping stove on hand for cooking, or if you have an outdoor space available, have a sturdy solar cooker and barbecue grill with a supply of charcoal.
United States Areas of Probable Power System Collapse During Severe Space Weather
Here is a NASA map of areas of probable power system collapse due to severe space weather …
Image Markup: United States Areas of Probable Power System Collapse, NASA … http://www.lapdonline.org/get_informed/content_basic_view/23511 … public domain …
COMMENT: Two irregular geographic areas are circled. These are in the United States northwest, and the eastern part of the United States.
More Information on Power Grid Failures
This is a good read, although a little dated …
Link: “Severe Space Weather–Social and Economic Impacts,” NASA, 21 January 2009 … https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/ ..
Here is more in-depth reading on the topic …
NOAA has done a study on how the can affect the United States power grid … Link: “Geomagnetic Storms and the US Power Grid” … http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611%20%281%29.pdf ..
This study is even more in-depth …
Link: “Geomagnetic Storms and Their Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid,” Meta-R-319, by John Kappenman, Metatech Corporation, for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, January 2010 … https://www.ferc.gov/industries/electric/indus-act/reliability/cybersecurity/ferc_meta-r-319.pdf ..
Here is the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology’s paper for the Trusted Information Sharing Network (TISN) …
Link: “Space Weather,” by the Australian Government’s Bureau of Meteorology … https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Category/Products%20and%20Services/Client%20Support/TISN/TISN_space-weather-information-sheet.pdf … See the section “Extreme Space Weather Events and Critical Infrastructure”
MY PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OF SPACE WEATHER
I expect there will be a severe geostorm in the next few days, provided it’s true that this morning’s two X-flares are Earth directed. We ought not discount the additional … although very small … chance of a Carrington event taking place.
Take care, everyone, and best of luck in weathering our upcoming geostorm!
In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars
MORE INFORMATION ON CARRINGTON EVENTS
In 2012, Pete Riley of Predictive Science, San Diego, CA, calculated the probability of a Carrington event in the next 10 years at approximately 12%; here is the paper …
Link: “On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events,” by Pete Riley, in “Space Weather,” Vol. 10, S02012, doi:10.1029/2011SW000734, Received 16 September 2011; revised 18 November 2011; accepted 22 December 2011; published 23 February 2012 … http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011SW000734/pdf ..
Link: “The Carrington Solar Flares of 1859: Consequences on Life,” by C. Muller, Orig Life Evol Biosph. 2014; 44(3): 185–195. Published online 2014 Oct 30. doi:10.1007/s11084-014-9368-3 PMCID: PMC4669545 … https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4669545/ ..
Link: “If the Massive Solar Flare of 1859 (the “Carrington Flare”) Happened Today,” by Ellen, updated on 11 January 2018 … https://owlcation.com/stem/massive-solar-flare-1859 ..
Link: “Prepping for an EMP and Solar Flares: How to Prepare for an Electromagnetic Pulse,” by Gaye Levy, 3 October 2019 … https://www.backdoorsurvival.com/prepping-for-an-emp-and-solar-flares/ ..
INFORMATION ON X-FLARES
Today’s X9.3 is among the two 14th most powerful solar flares recorded since 1976. Here is the list to date …
Link: “The Most Powerful Solar Flares Ever Recorded,” posted by Space Weather and based on a list compiled by IPS Radio & Space Services … https://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html ..
Wikipedia has information on large X-flares Earth has experienced. See Link: “Solar Flare,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare… the section: Examples of Large Solar Flares
I note this section is already up to date with today’s X9.3 flare.
I note in the above descriptive section from Wikipedia that Earth has experienced X-flares up to X45 on 4 November 2003. That makes today’s flare look relatively insignificant! …
“In modern times, the largest solar flare measured with instruments occurred on November 4, 2003. This event saturated the GOES detectors, and because of this its classification is only approximate. Initially, extrapolating the GOES curve, it was estimated to be X28 … Later analysis of the ionospheric effects suggested increasing this estimate to X45 … This event produced the first clear evidence of a new spectral component above 100 GHz …
“Other large solar flares also occurred on April 2, 2001 (X20), … October 28, 2003 (X17.2 and 10), … September 7, 2005 (X17), … February 17, 2011 (X2), … August 9, 2011 (X6.9), … March 7, 2012 (X5.4), … July 6, 2012 (X1.1)…” –from Link: “Solar Flare,” in Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare … The section: Examples of Large Solar Flares
(1) For a list of solar flares since record-keeping began, see Link: “List of Solar Cycles,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles ..
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astrogeophysics, solar events, solar flares, power grid, CME, coronal mass ejection, X-flare, auroras, earth-directed solar flurries,