Written and published on 22 May 2020; revised on 27 July 2020; by Alice B. Clagett
Previously titled: COVID-19 Tidbits: 2020 Predicted Excess Deaths for China 

Image: “2019-nCoV cases in China,” – Own work, base map from File:China Blank Map with Province Names.svg, from English Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:COVID-19_Confirmed_Cases_Animated_Map.webm … CC BY-SA 4.0

• IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA
• FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA
• WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

Dear Ones,

Here are a few COVID-19 tidbits regarding predicted death rate from COVID-19 in China …

IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA

I was wondering about the spread of COVID-19 in China, as the World Health Organization Daily Situation Reports have not been listing probable statistics for China since 18 April 2020. For instance, according to the WHO Situation Reports, only 3 additional COVID-19 deaths have been reported for China between 18 April 2020 and 21 May 2020 …

WHO reported 4642 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 89 (data received by 18 April 2020) … Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 89,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200418-sitrep-89-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3643dd38_2 ..

WHO reported 4645 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 122 (data received by 21 May 2020) … Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 122,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf?sfvrsn=24f20e05_2 ..

In perusing Situation Report 122, I wondered how it could be that there had been insignificant spread of the epidemic in China, as compared with Europe, North America, and Brazil? …

FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA

Today I found a map dated February 2020 that shows the virus has spread from Hubei to other areas of China … https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.382.issue-18/nejmoa2002032/20200424/images/img_medium/nejmoa2002032_f1.jpeg ..

That map was in this scientific article …

Link: “Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China,” by Weii-jie Guan, Ph.D., Zheng-yi Ni, M.D., Yu Hu, M.D., et al., for the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19, published on 28 February 2020 at NEJM.org …
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1708-1720 … 30 April 2020 … DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 …  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 ..

WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

I have not been able to find online the predicted excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes for China (although I may have simply overlooked the statistical analyses). If the ratio of predicted deaths were the same as that for the United States, the predicted number of deaths might be figured thus …

United States population: 328,200,000
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Predicted Excess Deaths from COVID-19 and Other Causes in the United States for 2020 (1): 99,000 deaths

China population: 1,393,000,000

The ratio would be: x predicted China excess deaths / 1,393,000,000 China population = 99,000 predicted United States excess deaths / 328,200,000 United States population

x = 99,000 / 329,200,000 x 1,393,000,000 = 420,192 predicted excess deaths for China in 2020

It seems to me likely that a number of countries may be underreporting COVID-19 infections and deaths for lack of manpower or possibly also for political reasons.

Alice B. Clagett
In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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FOOTNOTE

(1) 99,000 deaths are an average of the range of excess deaths predicted by the CDC; see … Link: “COVID-19 Tidbits: ‘General Pandemonium’ Deaths for the United States?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 22 May 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-ihj ..

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