COVID: The Worst May Be Over in the United States . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 7 April 2020; updated on 17 June 2020

[This post predicted a peak in hospital admissions for the United States on 7 April 2020, and a peak in deaths about a week later, on 14 April 2020.

Viewing the New York Times graph “New reported deaths by day in the United States” as of 17 June 2020, I see that deaths peaked three days after my predicted date, on 17 April 2020 –from Link: “Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count,” by the Los Angeles Times Staff, in the Los Angeles Times, updated frequently … https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html .. ]

Dear Ones,

There is a chance COVID hospital admissions may peak today for the United States on average.

According to this map, admissions already have peaked in Vermont, New York, Michigan, Louisiana, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, and  will peak this week for a number of other states …

Link: “How Are States Across the U.S. Projected to ‘Flatten the Curve’?” by Elijah Wolfson and Sanya Mansoor, 3 April 2020 … https://time.com/5815136/how-long-to-flatten-curve-us-states/ ..

It looks to me, from this article …

Link: “Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study,” by Fei Zhou, MD, Ting Yu, MD, Ronghui Du, MD, et al, published 11 March 2020, The Lancet, Volume 395, Issue 10229, pp 1054-1062, 28 March 2020, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext … See: Figure 1. Clinical courses of major symptoms and outcomes and duration of viral shedding from illness onset in patients hospitalised with COVID-19

… that for the portion of COVID patients admitted to a hospital and who do not survive, the median time till death may be about a week later; so we might anticipate a peak in COVID deaths one week later than the hospital admission peaks in the first reference above.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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community health, coronavirus, COVID-19, United States,

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