Predicted Coronavirus Death Toll for California . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 17 March 2020; updated on 15 June 2020

Dear Ones,

As you may know, the Chinese province of Hubei, which was the first part of the world to suffer the COVID-19 pandemic, has a population of 58.5 million people. Of those infected, the death toll according to the World Health Organization is 3,085 people.

There are about 39.6 million people in California. All things being equal (which may be far from the case) we might expect a coronavirus death toll in California of 2,088 people. [According to the Los Angeles Times (1) there have been 5,082 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in California as of 15 June 2020, so my estimate was too low.]

That is calculated thus: 3,085 Hubei province deaths, divided by 58.5M Hubei population, multiplied by 39.6M California population = 2,088 predicted State of California deaths.

As a percentage of the State of California population, that would be a mortality rate of 0.005 percent of the population; which is to say, a mortality rate of about five people in 10,000. [According to the New York Times (2), as of 15 June 2020, the COVID-19 mortality rate in California was 13 per 100,000, so my estimate was low.]

While far from ideal, those are pretty good odds of survival, I feel, provided we follow the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention coronavirus guidelines  …

Link: “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public ..

Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Prevent Getting Sick,” by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/index.html ..

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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FOOTNOTES

(1) Link: “Tracking Coronavirus in California,” by Los Angeles Times Staff, updated frequently … https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ ..

(2) Link: “California Coronavirus Map and Case Count,” by New York Times, updated frequently … https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cases.html ..

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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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health, community health, coronavirus, COVID-19, California, United States,

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