A Hunch About the Coronavirus . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 12 March 2020

  • CORONAVIRUS MAY BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT UNDERDIAGNOSED BECAUSE OF TEST SHORTAGE
  • THERE MAY ALREADY HAVE BEEN SEVERAL THOUSAND COVID-19 DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES
  • STAY SIX FEET FROM COUGHING OR SNEEZING PEOPLE
  • COVID-19 PANDEMIC MIGHT LAST TWO YEARS AND INVOLVE A DEADLIER ‘SECOND WAVE’

Dear Ones,

I have been monitoring the daily situation reports on the Coronavirus by the World Health Organization …

Link: “Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports,” by World Health Organization (WHO)  … https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports ..

CORONAVIRUS MAY BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT UNDERDIAGNOSED BECAUSE OF TEST SHORTAGE

My hunch is that the severe shortage of COVID-19 tests available in the United States are skewing the data. I see from a Google search that the CDC predicts about 12,000 Americans will die from the flu each year.

THERE MAY ALREADY HAVE BEEN SEVERAL THOUSAND COVID-19 DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES

Then there is this headline …

Link: “Trump ‘shocked’ by deadliness of flu — it’s killed at least 16,000 Americans this season,” by Meera Jagannathan, 28 February 2020 … https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-world-focuses-on-coronavirus-dont-forget-about-the-deadly-flu-2020-02-06 ..

It seems likely to me that some of the extra 4,000 deaths over and above the 12,000 annually predicted might be misdiagnosed COVID-19 cases. In other words, it is possible that the Coronavirus is well established in the United States, but currently underdiagnosed.

STAY SIX FEET FROM COUGHING OR SNEEZING PEOPLE

I also note as well that the World Health Organization recommends keeping 3 feet away from coughing or sneezing people …

Link: “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public,” by World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public ..

… but the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends keeping a distance of 6 feet away …

Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): How to Protect Yourself and Others,” by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/prevention.html ..

COVID-19 PANDEMIC MIGHT LAST TWO YEARS AND INVOLVE A DEADLIER ‘SECOND WAVE’

Based on what happened during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, it is possible the COVID-19 pandemic might last two years and involve a deadlier ‘second wave’ of illnesses. That earlier pandemic infected about 27 percent of people in the world at that time. About 3 to 5 percent of the world population at that time died of influenza …

Link: “Spanish Flu,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu ..

This sort of outcome would be on the severe end of possible outcomes for the Coronavirus pandemic. Yet it does point out the importance of storing as much in the way of basic food and water supplies as possible, in case the COVID-19 pandemic should be more severe than anticipated, and should there be foodstuffs shortages.

One does what one may in such instances, taking a middle path of preparation between the extremes, quite naturally dependent on financial means at hand.

I myself have a more optimistic notion of the likely course of the pandemic. If there is a second wave of illness in Hubei in the first half of 2020, then I will revise my ideas about it.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

P.S.: It could be that test shortages and difficulties with reporting health data in cities of China other than Hubei may be causing skewed Coronavirus statistics there as well. For instance, I see in the WHO daily situation reports that statistics on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in the last 24 hours are missing for many cities in China.

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health, coronavirus, community health, COVID-19,